Polymarket World Cup Winner Market Tops $1.8 Billion in Volume as Group Stage Begins

Polymarket’s prediction market for the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion has surpassed $1.8 billion in cumulative trading volume as the group stage begins. According to ChainCatcher, the market recorded more than $66 million in trading over the past 24 hours, with liquidity at $352.7 million. France held a slight lead with an implied title probability of 16.2%, narrowly ahead of Spain at 16.0%. Together, the two teams accounted for about 32% of the implied championship probability and are in the same group, setting up a group-stage matchup described as a key pricing moment for the broader tournament market. By country-specific markets, France’s championship market had $40.9 million in trading volume, while Spain’s had $33.6 million, the highest volumes among single-team markets. The host United States market posted $50.9 million in volume but had an implied championship probability of about 3%, which the report said suggests relatively higher retail participation. Separately, markets for the 12 group winners totaled about $3.4 million in trading volume. The report added that trading activity has accelerated as the tournament approached, with $342 million in volume over the past week and $881 million over the past month.