Polymarket Predicts High Probability of U.S.-Iran Peace Agreement by Year-End

The prediction market Polymarket is currently witnessing significant trading activity around the question of whether the U.S. and Iran will reach a permanent peace agreement before the end of the year. According to ChainCatcher, the total pool size for this event has reached $881 million. The option with the highest market consensus is 'December 31,' which corresponds to an estimated probability of 73.5%.