Thailand's Industrial GDP Faces Potential Decline Amid Middle East Tensions

Thailand's Office of Industrial Economics (OIE) has issued a warning regarding the potential impact of rising crude oil prices on the country's industrial GDP. According to Jin10, if tensions in the Middle East lead to an increase in oil prices to $100-105 per barrel, Thailand's industrial GDP could shrink by 100-120 billion baht, accounting for approximately 0.15% of the sector's GDP. The industries most likely to be affected are those with high energy consumption, including cement and concrete, glass and flat glass, ceramics and tiles, natural gas and petroleum, textiles and apparel, and pulp and paper. In contrast, Thailand's major high-value industries, such as electronics, gems and jewelry, hard disk drives, electrical appliances, and automotive manufacturing, have lower energy intensity and are expected to experience a more limited overall impact.