January Employment Figures Expected to Show Divergence Between ADP and Nonfarm Data

Independent macroeconomic research firm Continuum Economics' North American Senior Economist Dave Sloan anticipates a rise of 30,000 in January's ADP employment figures, marking a slowdown from December's increase of 41,000. According to Odaily, the ADP report is expected to be significantly lower than January's nonfarm employment data, with an overall nonfarm employment growth projected at 85,000. While December's ADP data closely matched nonfarm employment figures, recent trends show ADP data consistently underperforming, averaging 22,000 less than nonfarm figures over the past six months. Although the gap narrowed in September and November, it is expected to widen to 50,000 in January. Nonfarm employment is anticipated to rebound from recent retail sector weakness, a factor less impactful on ADP data. January's ADP breakdown is expected to show slight improvements in goods-producing sectors, particularly construction, while service sector growth may slow. The trend of weaker ADP data compared to nonfarm figures is most pronounced in the service sector, with notable discrepancies in education and healthcare industries.