Santiment 表示，社交媒体情绪显示加密市场尚未表现出足够的恐慌以确认触底。Santiment 创始人 Maksim Balashevich 指出，目前网络上对于下跌趋势短期内反转持乐观态度，这种散户主导的乐观情绪通常不会出现在真正的市场底部。根据 Maksim Balashevich 的观察，Bitcoin 价格有可能进一步下跌至 7.5 万美元附近，较目前约 8.8 万美元的价格水平下跌约 14.77%。此外，日本央行周五将利率上调至 0.75%，此前此类举措曾引发 Bitcoin 约 20%的回调。Fidelity 全球宏观研究总监 Jurrien Timmer 认为 Bitcoin 可能在 2026 年回落至 6.5 万美元。与此同时，加密恐慌与贪婪指数已自 12 月 14 日起处于极端恐惧区间，周日分数为 20。（Cointelegraph）

According to Cointelegraph, crypto traders have not yet exhibited sufficient fear on social media to confirm a market bottom, as suggested by a crypto analyst who believes Bitcoin could still drop to around $75,000. Maksim Balashevich, founder of the crypto market sentiment platform Santiment, expressed in a YouTube video that the current market conditions appear tempting for a further decline. This potential move would represent an approximate 14.77% decrease from Bitcoin’s current price of $88,350, as reported by CoinMarketCap. Balashevich noted that his reluctance to declare a market bottom stems from observing significant optimism online about a near-term reversal of the downtrend, which he argues is not typical when a true market bottom is forming. Santiment's report on the same day echoed this sentiment, stating that the crowd isn't sufficiently fearful for a bottom to be established. Balashevich highlighted overly optimistic discussions, particularly in retail-dominated channels, about the Bank of Japan's rate cuts and the belief that bears have been caught, leading to expectations of continued upward movement. He emphasized that such statements are not indicative of a market bottom, adding that under different circumstances, he would be more confident in making such a call. Japan's central bank recently raised interest rates to a 30-year high of 0.75%, a move historically linked to approximately 20% corrections in Bitcoin. Despite this, Balashevich suggested that a decline to the predicted price level could offer a favorable setup for traders. Meanwhile, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro research, speculated that Bitcoin might experience a downturn in 2026, potentially falling to around $65,000. Conversely, other analysts, including Bitwise's chief investment officer Matt Hougan, anticipate 2026 to be a positive year for Bitcoin. While Balashevich remains skeptical about the market reaching its bottom, crypto market indicators present a conflicting view. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which gauges overall crypto market sentiment, has been in the "Extreme Fear" zone since December 14, with a score of 20 recorded on Sunday. Additionally, the Altcoin Season Index, which assesses the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin over the past 90 days, indicated a "Bitcoin Season" reading of 17 out of 100 on Saturday. These indicators suggest a risk-off stance among crypto traders, contrasting with Balashevich's outlook.

null source: https://x.com/cointelegraph/status/2002544640776446144

null source: https://x.com/cointelegraph/status/2002544638914081192

Regulatory clarity and partnerships fueled CC’s surge, but liquidity data hinted at near-term caution. source: https://ambcrypto.com/canton-network-surges-on-sec-linked-boost-can-cc-extend-gains/

According to PANews, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro Research at Fidelity, has expressed skepticism about the conclusion of the four-year market cycle. Timmer noted that there are no indications from the charts suggesting the cycle has ended. He explained that aligning the trajectories of all bull markets reveals a peak of $125,000 in October after 145 weeks of growth, which aligns with expectations. Timmer anticipates that the current bear market will persist until 2026, with support levels ranging between $65,000 and $75,000.

null source: https://x.com/angrycryptoshow/status/2002539451214369179

Tom Lee 针对其本人与 Fundstrat 分析师对比特币展望存在矛盾的争论作出回应，Fundstrat 高管并非基于单一统一预测，而是根据不同投资目标开展工作。Farrell 的评论反映了侧重于回撤风险、资金流动和成本基础的防御性仓位策略，旨在降低模型投资组合中的加密货币配置比例，而非长期看跌。Mark Newton 的观点则完全基于图表结构。Tom Lee 表示其角色更侧重于宏观流动性周期、市场结构性转变以及机构投资者与 ETF 对比特币周期的影响。

null source: https://x.com/angrycryptoshow/status/2002538256479453461

null source: https://x.com/angrycryptoshow/status/2002538043849228383

Arthur Hayes：一旦市场意识到储备管理购买（RMP）与量化宽松（QE）本质相同，BTC将迅速回升至12.4万美元，并快速向20万美元发起冲击。

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