据英国天空新闻：特朗普表示，伊朗计划中的大部分要点已完全谈妥。(金十)

Odaily Seer 先知频道监测显示，Polymarket“特朗普 4 月 30 日前宣布结束对伊朗的军事行动”概率一度大幅升至 78%，现报 61%，24 小时上涨 30%，截至目前“特朗普何时宣布结束对伊朗的军事行动”事件合约的总交易量已突破 1566.9 万美元。该事件合约规则为：如果特朗普总统、美国政府或军方公开正式宣布，其于 2026 年 2 月 28 日发起的针对伊朗的军事行动已于指定日期（美国东部时间）前结束，则该市场将判定为“是”，否则该市场将判定为“否”。符合条件的声明必须明确表明行动已经结束。非正式声明、匿名消息来源的声明或泄露的信息均不符合条件，特朗普的公开书面声明（例如，他个人“Truth Social”账户上的帖子）将被视为有效声明，特朗普社交媒体账户上发布的视频也将被视为有效声明，该市场的主要判定依据是美国政府和/或其官方代表的官方声明，但同时也会参考其他可信报道的共识。此前特朗普宣布已同意与伊朗停火两周，还表示美国将协助处理霍尔木兹海峡日益积压的航运交通问题，不过特朗普在 Truth Social 发布的帖子没有提供有关美国将如何帮助该海峡的具体细节，也没有讨论伊朗继续向某些船只通过该海峡收取通行费的可能性。Odaily Seer 先知频道持续关注预测市场，在定价之前，看见变化。

Three newly created wallets have collectively profited $484,575 by betting on a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, raising concerns of potential insider trading. According to Cointelegraph, these wallets were established and funded on Tuesday, with no prior activity before engaging in Polymarket's 'US x Iran ceasefire by April 7' market. Blockchain data shared by Lookonchain on Wednesday revealed the profits for the three wallets amounted to $200,525, $158,600, and $125,450, respectively. The bets were placed with probabilities ranging from 2.9% to 10.3%. The latest trader on Polymarket made their initial trade in the 'US x Iran ceasefire by April 7' market at 1:59 pm UTC on Tuesday, approximately eight and a half hours before U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement on TruthSocial at 10:32 pm UTC. The other two traders placed their first bets at 10:01 am UTC on Tuesday and 8:50 pm UTC on Monday. The bets were settled after the U.S. and Iran's Supreme National Security Council agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, although both nations have not ruled out the possibility of further military actions. Prediction markets, which have become a rapidly growing application for cryptocurrency, consistently exceed $10 billion in monthly trading volume. However, these platforms are under intense scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators worldwide due to concerns about insider trading and market manipulation. In January, U.S. lawmakers proposed a bill to prevent government officials from trading on prediction market platforms after a Polymarket user gained over $400,000 from a market concerning Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's capture by U.S. forces, raising suspicions of insider knowledge. In February, Israeli authorities arrested and charged two individuals for allegedly using confidential information to place bets on Polymarket regarding Israel striking Iran in June 2025. One of the arrested individuals was a member of Israel's military. To combat insider trading, Polymarket and Kalshi have implemented measures to identify and prevent such activities. In February, Kalshi announced the formation of an independent advisory committee and a partnership with crypto trading surveillance platform Solidus Labs to detect, investigate, and address market abuse.

人工智能,OpenClaw,AI Agent,LLM,DeepSeek,给AI Agent选大模型 智商是门槛 情商是分水岭 金色财经,对几个国产主流AI大模型进行实际的体验。

Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF is poised to begin trading on NYSE Arca on Wednesday, carrying an annual fee of 0.14%. According to NS3.AI, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted an NYSE listing notice that suggests an April 8 launch date. The fund is expected to hold actual bitcoin and will commence with approximately $1 million in seed capital.

Germany's seasonally adjusted manufacturing orders for February increased by 0.9%, falling short of the anticipated 2.00% growth, according to Jin10. The previous month's figures had shown a significant decline of 11.10%, highlighting a recovery in the sector despite not meeting expectations.

Web3 asset data platform RootData has issued a transparency alert on Twitter, highlighting missing information from projects such as Sentism.AI, Fortune, Ultima, Etherex, and Solomon Labs. According to ChainCatcher, RootData is calling on project teams to submit or update their data on the platform to enhance their transparency scores. RootData also plans to continue monitoring and exposing projects that lack essential information. RootData's transparency score is designed to assess the completeness and timeliness of project information, aiming to reflect the level of disclosure. The platform urges project teams to claim their projects immediately. The transparency score ranges from A to F, with lower scores indicating less comprehensive information disclosure and higher risks of misconduct, warranting increased caution from investors.

Ether (ETH) is showing signs of resilience as buying pressure mounts, suggesting a potential 'regime shift' in the market. According to Cointelegraph, analysts emphasize the importance of maintaining the $2,000 support level for a positive trend change. Onchain data indicates a resurgence in demand, with Ether's net taker volume pointing to the formation of a stronger bottom. This metric, which measures the imbalance between aggressive buyers and sellers in derivatives markets, has remained positive since March 6, reaching $140 million on March 16. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted in a recent X post that buying pressure is prevailing, with $104 million currently observed. This marks the first instance since the previous bear market where such a shift is evident in Ethereum derivatives. If this dynamic continues and the spot market and ETFs support the move, Ethereum could potentially restart a positive trend. Further reinforcing this outlook is the futures open interest (OI), which represents the total number of outstanding futures contracts that have not been settled or closed. The metric now stands at 6.4 million ETH, nearing its all-time high of 7.8 million ETH reached in July 2025. Darkfost highlighted in another X post that after a decline to 5 million ETH in October, open interest has gradually recovered, indicating that derivatives markets on Ethereum remain highly active. Meanwhile, spot Ether ETF flows have turned positive, with these investment products recording $120 million in net inflows on Monday, the highest since mid-March. This shift points to renewed demand from U.S. investors following a period of outflows, potentially driving ETH prices higher. For Ether to maintain its cautiously bullish stance, it must hold the $1,800-$2,000 support zone, where the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle converge. Analyst Ted Pillows remarked in a Tuesday X post that as long as the $2,000 support zone holds, Ethereum could experience another upside move. However, losing this level could lead to a new yearly low. The significance of this support is underscored by cost basis distribution, with over 3.5 million ETH acquired around $2,000. Below this, the next defense line is the $1,750-$1,800 demand zone, where investors acquired 1.36 million ETH. A drop below this level could result in a free-fall toward the symmetrical triangle's measured target at $1,460, or 30% below the current price. As Cointelegraph reported, holding the $1,800-$2,000 range would demonstrate strength among bulls, who must push the ETH/USD pair above the $2,400 range high to regain control.

Ethereum's buyer strength is showing signs of resurgence, according to Cointelegraph. According to BlockBeats, on-chain data and derivatives market indicators suggest a positive shift, though analysts caution that maintaining the $2,000 support level is crucial. CryptoQuant data reveals that Ethereum's net taker volume has remained positive since March 6, peaking at $140 million on March 16 and currently standing at $104 million. This metric measures the imbalance between aggressive buyers and sellers in the derivatives market. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted, "This is the first time since the last bear market that we've observed such a mechanism shift in the Ethereum derivatives market." He added that if this trend continues and the spot market along with ETFs follow suit, Ethereum could resume its upward trajectory. In terms of futures open interest, the current position is 6.4 million ETH, nearing the historical high of 7.8 million ETH set in July 2025, and has gradually increased from the low of 5 million ETH in October last year. Spot Ethereum ETF fund flows also turned positive on Monday, with a net inflow of $120 million, marking the highest single-day inflow since mid-March. On the price front, analyst Ted Pillows stated, "As long as the $2,000 support level holds, Ethereum is poised for another rally; however, if it falls below this level, a new low for the year could follow." Glassnode's cost basis distribution data shows that over 3.5 million ETH have a holding cost concentrated around $2,000. If this area is breached, the next support lies between $1,750 and $1,800, where approximately 1.36 million ETH were accumulated. Should the price fall further below these supports, the measured target of the symmetrical triangle points to $1,460, about 30% lower than the current price.

Hyperscale Data has announced preliminary unaudited consolidated revenue figures for the first quarter ending March 31, 2026. According to Foresight News, the company anticipates consolidated revenue of approximately $43 million to $45 million, marking a 72% to 80% increase compared to the $25 million reported in the first quarter of 2025. The expected revenue growth is primarily attributed to contributions from its subsidiaries, Gresham and Ault Lending. The quarter includes around $10 million in revenue generated by Gresham following its bankruptcy restructuring completed in the fourth quarter of 2025, which was not accounted for in the previous year's figures. Additionally, Hyperscale Data forecasts that Ault Lending will contribute approximately $10 million in high-margin revenue for the quarter.

Cathie Wood 旗下 Ark Invest 买入约 1300 万美元 Robinhood HOOD 股票。（Cointelegraph）

币安创始人赵长鹏（CZ）在其新书《币安人生》中从思维方式、团队、生意与合作、沟通、产品、公共关系以及休闲生活等七大方面记录了一些他的行事原则与做事方式。

The FDIC has put forward rules for stablecoin issuers, covering reserves, redemptions, capital, and risk management. It confirmed stablecoins will not have deposit insurance and is asking the public for feedback over the next 60 days.

"真正可怕的不是 Mythos 会被坏人拿去用。是 Mythos 让我们第一次意识到，我们以为安全的东西，在另一个维度上从来就没有安全过。"

特朗普凌晨宣布暂时停止袭击伊朗，伊朗也宣称接受停火协议。中东紧张局势得以缓解，大幅提升风险偏好。BTC反弹重回7.2万美元，全球市场得以稍作喘息，接下来如何发展？

Bitcoin is holding firm near $68,500 as President Donald Trump’s April 7 deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz arrives under threats of infrastructure strikes—yet $471 million in ETF inflows suggests markets are positioning for de-escalation, not disaster.

Solana DEX Stabble told users to withdraw their funds after a former employee was linked to North Korea. TVL fell from $1.75 million to under $663,000, though no exploit has been reported.

加密网络原本是为人使用而设计的。自主智能系统必须用机器原生的等效功能，替代人类的理解与判断能力。

Anthropic宣布推出新计划Project Glasswing，且Anthropic训练出了一个全新的超强模型Claude Mythos Preview。

美国,特朗普,伊朗,石油,一场停火、各自表述 金色财经,一些关于美美伊停火协议的初步观察，仅供参考。