According to CME FedWatch data, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates at all by the end of 2026 stands at 5.4%. According to BlockBeats, there is a 21.1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut, a 32.5% chance of a 50 basis point reduction, a 25.9% likelihood of a 75 basis point cut, an 11.7% probability of a 100 basis point decrease, and a 3% chance of a 125 basis point reduction. Additionally, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's next meeting in March is 23.2%.

Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, has outlined nine major narratives driving the future of crypto, which could shape the next bull market cycle. These narratives focus on key developments like AI, tokenization, institutional adoption, and more. Here's a summary of the narratives he's tracking:Revenue-Generating Projects: Blockchain is set to scale significantly, with revenue-generating projects poised to be rewarded in the next cycle.AiFi (AI + Crypto): AI agents will increasingly use crypto, stablecoins, and DeFi, offering enormous growth potential.Fading Fiat: With fiat currencies losing value, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are seen as an alternative store of value.Institutional Adoption: The next decade will witness significant institutional crypto adoption, measured in trillions.Regulatory Progress: Positive regulations will drive mainstream adoption, with key regulations like the Genius Act coming into effect in 2027.Stablecoin Supercycle: Stablecoins will become the backbone of global payments, growing from $300 billion to trillions in the coming years.Tokenization: Tokenizing traditional assets (equities, bonds, real estate) will revolutionize the market, where we've barely scratched the surface.DeFi Resurgence: As the world becomes tokenized, DeFi will grow exponentially as protocols improve with clearer regulations.Ethereum's Steve Jobs Moment: Vitalik Buterin's return to Ethereum marks a key turning point, similar to Steve Jobs’ return to Apple.While Hougan acknowledges that not all of these narratives may work out, he remains optimistic about the future, highlighting a promising few years ahead for crypto.

South Korean court sentences crypto CEO to three years for price manipulation, marking the first enforcement of the country’s Virtual Asset User Protection Act. source: https://catenaa.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/south-korean-crypto-ceo-sentenced-to-three-years-for-market-manipulation/

ERC-8004 is a newly introduced Ethereum standard designed to establish a permission model for on-chain activities. According to NS3.AI, this standard does not alter asset definitions or transaction mechanics but instead transforms authorization into a describable, constrainable, and manageable object within the blockchain system. This framework aims to enhance the control and validation of on-chain actions by smart contracts and agents.

The White House has scheduled a high-stakes, staff-level meeting for Tuesday, February 10, 2026, aimed at resolving a regulatory deadlock between major U. S. banks and the cryptocurrency industry over stablecoin yield and reward mechanisms source: https://www.ethnews.com/white-house-convenes-banks-and-crypto-industry-over-stablecoin-yield-dispute/

A new round of cryptocurrency discussions is set to take place at the White House next Tuesday, focusing on stablecoin yield issues. According to Odaily, this meeting marks the second in a series and will be held at the staff level, without the presence of company CEOs. However, senior policy personnel from several banks will attend for the first time. Sources indicate that major banks such as Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo have received invitations, with Citibank, PNC Bank, and U.S. Bank also likely to participate. Banking industry representatives will include the Bank Policy Institute, the American Bankers Association, and the Independent Community Bankers of America. The banking sector aims to limit cryptocurrency companies from paying interest to stablecoin holders, fearing that high-yield accounts could lead to deposit outflows and affect loan funding. Cryptocurrency firms argue that such restrictions would stifle competition and innovation. Scott Besant stated this week that deposit volatility is undesirable and efforts will be made to prevent stablecoin yield payments from causing deposit instability. This meeting is related to the advancement of the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act (CLARITY Act). Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the White House Cryptocurrency Committee, has urged all parties to reach a consensus by the end of the month.

加密记者 Eleanor Terrett 披露，下周二白宫将举行新一轮加密货币会议，重点讨论稳定币收益率问题。本次会议为系列会议第二轮，仍为工作人员级别，不会邀请企业首席执行官，但多家银行的高级政策人员将首次参会。知情人士称，美国银行、摩根大通、富国银行 等大型银行已收到邀请，花旗银行、PNC银行、美国合众银行 也可能参与；银行业代表机构包括 银行政策研究所、美国银行家协会 和 美国独立社区银行家协会。报道称，银行方面希望限制加密公司向稳定币持有者支付利息，担心高收益账户吸引存款外流并影响贷款资金供给。加密公司则认为该主张将削弱竞争并抑制创新。斯科特·贝森特 本周表示，存款波动并不可取，将努力避免稳定币收益支付引发存款不稳定。此次会议与《加密货币市场结构法案》（CLARITY 法案）推进相关。白宫加密货币委员会执行主任 Patrick Witt 已敦促各方在本月底前达成共识。

A few bearish trends across the board have affected Bitcoin's price lately. source: https://ambcrypto.com/explainer-why-is-bitcoin-under-so-much-sell-pressure-right-now/

Scott Melker, host of The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast, posted on X that Galaxy Digital has authorized a $200 million share buyback program. The buyback will occur over the next 12 months, aiming to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

투손에서 발생한 낸시 거스리의 실종 사건은 혈흔과 비트코인으로 몸값을 요구한 폭력적인 납치 사건으로 밝혀졌습니다. source: https://ko.spaziocrypto.com/amhohwa/geoseuri-nabci-biteukoinyi-piwa-momgabs/

被不少人视为Solana 最坚定布道者的 Kyle Samani 宣布从 Multicoin 的日常管理中退居二线，称将把精力转向 AI、机器人、生命科学等新技术领域，同时仍保留个人加密投资。

现在很流行宣称“加密货币的非金融用例已经死了”。还有一些人声称“读-写-拥有”（read write own）已经失败。这些结论既误解了我们的核心论点，也误判了我们所处的阶段。

在本周，共有 18 家区块链初创公司完成融资，总金额达 2.789 亿美元。Anchorage Digital在一轮战略融资中筹集 1 亿美元，为本周最大一笔融资。

2026 年 2 月 6 日，中国人民银行等八部委发布了《关于进一步防范和处置虚拟货币等相关风险的通知》（银发〔2026〕42 号，以下简称“42 号文”）。

金色财经推出加密货币和区块链行业早报《金色早8点》2961期，为您提供最新、最快的数字货币和区块链行业新闻。

交易所,Bithumb,韩国,离谱操作天花板：Bithumb 凭空发出 62 万枚 BTC 金色财经,有人差点白嫖 1.3 亿美元。

2026 年是我们决定以核心价值为代价的主流采用不值得的时候。「足够好」的去中心化不够好。用户应该得到比信任基础设施提供商访问「去信任」网络更好的东西。

对于虚拟货币、稳定币的监管力度进一步加强，但对于此前不久受到监管严格定性的RWA业务，却似乎留出了一道合规窄门。

这场博弈远未结束——下一波上涨的动力或许并非源于乐观情绪，而是源于「不得不买」的刚需。

巴克莱认为，软件行业的大幅下跌正对其持有高比例投资敞口（20%）的商业发展公司造成显著冲击。