According to PANews, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro Research at Fidelity, has expressed skepticism about the conclusion of the four-year market cycle. Timmer noted that there are no indications from the charts suggesting the cycle has ended. He explained that aligning the trajectories of all bull markets reveals a peak of $125,000 in October after 145 weeks of growth, which aligns with expectations. Timmer anticipates that the current bear market will persist until 2026, with support levels ranging between $65,000 and $75,000.

Tom Lee 针对其本人与 Fundstrat 分析师对比特币展望存在矛盾的争论作出回应，Fundstrat 高管并非基于单一统一预测，而是根据不同投资目标开展工作。Farrell 的评论反映了侧重于回撤风险、资金流动和成本基础的防御性仓位策略，旨在降低模型投资组合中的加密货币配置比例，而非长期看跌。Mark Newton 的观点则完全基于图表结构。Tom Lee 表示其角色更侧重于宏观流动性周期、市场结构性转变以及机构投资者与 ETF 对比特币周期的影响。

According to PANews, a debate has emerged regarding the differing perspectives on Bitcoin from Fundstrat analysts, including Tom Lee. A user named Cassian, claiming to be a Fundstrat client, posted that the interpretation of this debate is unfair and misleading. Tom Lee responded to Cassian's post, agreeing with the sentiment. Cassian explained that Fundstrat executives do not operate based on a single unified forecast but rather work according to different investment objectives, distinguishing between long-term macro views, portfolio-level risk management, and technical analysis. Farrell's comments, Cassian noted, reflect a defensive position strategy focused on drawdown risk, capital flows, and cost basis, rather than a long-term bearish outlook on Bitcoin. Farrell has reduced the allocation of cryptocurrencies in Fundstrat's model portfolio for risk management purposes, while remaining optimistic about long-term adoption trends beyond early 2026. In contrast, Tom Lee's role emphasizes macro liquidity cycles and structural market shifts, including the adoption by institutional investors and the impact of ETFs on Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle dynamics. Meanwhile, technical analyst Mark Newton's perspective is entirely based on chart structures rather than macro narratives.

According to Odaily, monitoring by CryptoQuant indicates a significant slowdown in Bitcoin demand since October 2025, suggesting the cryptocurrency has entered a new bear market cycle. Analysts highlight that three waves of investment demand—spot ETF approval, the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and corporate financial asset allocation bubbles—have largely been exhausted. In the fourth quarter, ETF holdings decreased by approximately 24,000 BTC, and perpetual contract funding rates have dropped to their lowest level since December 2023. Additionally, Bitcoin's price has fallen below the 365-day moving average of approximately $98,172, a critical dynamic support level for the asset. While some analysts remain hopeful that interest rate cuts in 2026 could lead to a price recovery, current market sentiment is fearful, with only 22.1% of investors expecting a rate cut at the January FOMC meeting.

据 CryptoQuant 监测，比特币需求增长自 2025 年 10 月以来显著放缓，表明比特币已进入新一轮熊市周期。分析师指出，本轮周期内的三波投资需求（现货 ETF 获批、2024 年美国大选、公司财务资产配置泡沫）已基本释放。第四季度 ETF 持有量减少约 2.4 万枚 BTC，且永续合约资金费率降至 2023 年 12 月以来最低水平。此外，比特币价格已跌破约 98,172 美元的 365 日移动平均线，该位置为资产的关键动态支撑水平。虽然部分分析师对 2026 年降息带动价格回升持有期待，但目前市场情绪处于恐惧状态，仅 22.1%的投资者预期 1 月 FOMC 会议将下调利率。

Arthur Hayes 在 YouTube 播客采访中表示，山寨季始终在发生，投资者认为山寨季尚未到来是因为其未持有上涨的资产。Arthur Hayes 指出，许多交易员仍期望山寨季重复往年的模式、币种及叙事，并建议交易员应调整心态关注市场新事物而非依赖历史。其将 Hyperliquid 视为本轮周期至今最好的案例，该项目代币 HYPE 从 2 至 3 美元上涨至 60 美元，并提到 Solana 从 7 美元上涨至接近 300 美元的表现。Arthur Hayes 强调，山寨季已经发生，只是部分投资者并未参与其中。

According to Odaily, the Delaware Supreme Court has reinstated a $139 billion Tesla stock option package that was previously nullified, leading to a significant increase in Tesla CEO Elon Musk's net worth, which soared to $749 billion last Friday. The compensation package, originally valued at $56 billion in 2018, was dismissed by a lower court two years ago as 'excessive.' However, the Delaware Supreme Court announced on Friday that the decision to revoke the package in 2024 was improper and unfair to Musk. Earlier this week, reports suggested that Musk's aerospace startup, SpaceX, might soon go public, which contributed to his net worth surpassing $600 billion, making him the first person globally to achieve this milestone.

According to Odaily, BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder is set to interview for the position of Federal Reserve Chair at Mar-a-Lago. Other candidates for the role include Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.

特拉华州最高法院恢复了去年被作废的价值1390亿美元特斯拉股票期权后，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆・马斯克的身家于上周五晚间飙升至7490亿美元。马斯克2018年的薪酬方案曾价值560亿美元，两年前被下级法院认定 “离谱” 而驳回，如今特拉华州最高法院于本周五宣布恢复该方案。最高法院表示，2024年撤销这份薪酬方案的裁决存在不当之处，且对马斯克有失公允。本周早些时候，有报道称其航天初创企业太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）或即将上市，随后马斯克的身家突破 6000 亿美元，成为全球首位达成该成就的富豪。（新浪）

贝莱德首席投资官里克·里德尔将在海湖庄园接受美联储主席一职的面试，其他候选人包括凯文·哈塞特、凯文·沃什和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒。

Arthur Hayes：一旦市场意识到储备管理购买（RMP）与量化宽松（QE）本质相同，BTC将迅速回升至12.4万美元，并快速向20万美元发起冲击。

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2025年11月28日，中国人民银行联合公安部、最高人民法院、最高人民检察院等十三部门召开“打击虚拟货币交易炒作工作协调机制会议”。

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