受地缘局势急剧升级影响，比特币价格快速下挫，在美国总统特朗普宣布对霍尔木兹海峡实施海上封锁后，BTC 一度跌至约 70,900 美元，24 小时跌幅约 2.5%。此前，美国副总统 J. D. Vance 表示，美伊谈判未能就延长停火达成一致，市场情绪已转向谨慎。比特币价格从周六大部分时间维持的 73,000 美元上方快速回落至 71,500 美元附近，并在封锁消息公布后进一步走低。分析认为，霍尔木兹海峡作为全球关键能源运输通道，其局势变化显著加剧市场避险情绪，带动包括加密资产在内的风险资产整体承压。（CoinDesk）

Garrett Jin, an agent for the 'BTC OG Insider Whale,' expressed skepticism about the prospects of a ceasefire, describing it as a 'sugar-coated poison.' According to BlockBeats, Jin argued that the market is operating under the assumption that a brief ceasefire could lead to lasting peace. However, he believes the likelihood of this outcome is less than 10%. Jin's reasoning is based on the incompatibility between the conditions proposed by Iran and the demands of the United States. He noted that no ceasefire terms have been executed within 24 hours, and historically, conflicts of this magnitude have never been resolved through a two-week pause. Jin suggests that the actual probability of a successful ceasefire is even lower than 10%.

数字资产金融服务公司 Tok-Edge 宣布将推出面向机构投资者的加密对冲基金并在 2026 年实现 1 亿美元首轮募资，据悉 Tok-Edge 此前一直处于“隐身状态”，新基金长期目标是构建面向机构的合规加密资产配置基础设施，其初始规模为 2100 万美元，传统金融资深投资人 Marcus Meijer 及其投资联盟为该基金投资方，后者拟作为基石投资者拟提供 1000 万美元资金。（Benzinga）

据链上分析师 Ai 姨监测，鲸鱼“先定 10 个大目标”比特币和以太坊空单已浮盈 321 万美元：1、BTC 空单：2567.49 枚，开仓价 71554.61 美元，浮盈 118.5 万美元；2、ETH 空单：38465.22 枚，开仓价 2248.74 美元，浮盈 202.8 万美元。

The probability of WTI crude oil reaching $110 by April 2026 has significantly increased on Polymarket, now standing at 67%, with a 13% rise in the last hour and a 20% increase over 24 hours. According to Odaily, the total trading volume for this event contract has surpassed $24 million. The contract stipulates that if the highest price of any one-minute candlestick for WTI crude oil futures during April 2026 equals or exceeds the listed price, the market will be deemed a 'yes'; otherwise, it will be a 'no'. Previously, the March WTI crude oil price prediction contract required the official settlement price of the active month contract on any trading day at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to meet or exceed the listed price by the last trading day of March 2026 for a 'yes' outcome. U.S. President Donald Trump announced today that the U.S. Navy, the world's most powerful naval force, will begin blocking any vessels attempting to enter or exit the Strait of Hormuz. He also ordered the Navy to search and intercept any ships that have paid transit fees to Iran in international waters. Those who have paid such fees will not be allowed safe passage on the high seas, and efforts will begin to destroy Iranian mines in the strait. Trump warned that any Iranian who fires upon peaceful vessels will face severe consequences. He stated that Iran knows how to end the war that has devastated their country, noting the loss of their navy, air force, and defense systems, as well as the deaths of leaders including Khamenei, all due to their nuclear ambitions. The blockade is set to begin with other countries joining in, ensuring Iran does not profit from illegal extortion. Iran seeks money and, more importantly, nuclear weapons.

Odaily Seer 先知频道监测显示， Polymarket“WTI 原油将在 2026 年 4 月升至 110 美元”概率大幅上涨，现概率升至 67%，1 小时上涨 13%，24 小时上涨 20%。截至目前 Polymarket“WTI 原油 2026 年 4 月价格”事件合约总交易量已超 2400 万美元。该事件合约规则为：如果在 2026 年 4 月期间 WTI 原油期货活跃月份的任何 1 分钟 K 线“最高价”等于或高于上市价格，则该市场将判定为“是”，否则该市场将判定为“否”；而此前 WTI 原油 3 月价格预测事件合约的规则为：在任何交易日的芝加哥商品交易所原油期货合约当前活跃月份(近月)的官方结算价等于或高于截至 2026 年 3 月最后一个交易日的上市价格，则该市场将判定为”是”，否则市场将判定为“否"。特朗普今日发文表示：即刻起，美国海军，这支世界上最强大的海军，将开始对任何试图进出霍尔木兹海峡的船只实施封锁。我还命令美国海军，在国际水域搜寻并拦截每一艘向伊朗缴纳过“过路费”的船只。任何支付了这种非法过路费的人，都别想在公海上获得安全通行，还将开始摧毁伊朗在海峡中布设的水雷。任何伊朗人胆敢向和平船只开火，他们都会被炸进地狱！伊朗比谁都清楚，如何结束这场已经摧毁了他们国家的战争。他们的海军没了，空军没了，防空和雷达系统也成了摆设，哈梅内伊以及他们大部分的领导人都已身亡，所有这一切，都是因为他们对核武器的野心。封锁即将开始，其他国家也会参与其中。绝不允许伊朗从这种非法的敲诈行径中获利。他们想要钱，而更重要的是，他们想要核武器。Odaily Seer 先知频道持续关注预测市场，在定价之前，看见变化。

European banks and corporations have progressed from educational initiatives to selecting partners for stablecoin rollouts over the past 18 months, according to Taurus co-founder Lamine Brahimi. According to NS3.AI, Brahimi noted that the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation has facilitated this shift by replacing fragmented national rules with a unified framework. Some companies with board-level approval are preparing to launch their stablecoin projects. Konstantin Vasilenko highlighted a significant increase in USDC volume on Paybis within the European Union, rising approximately 109% between October 2025 and March 2026. This surge is attributed to growing demand for stablecoins in settlement and treasury operations.

U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his stance on Iran's nuclear ambitions, emphasizing it as a red line. According to BlockBeats, Trump stated that he received a comprehensive briefing from Vice President Vance, Special Envoy Whitcoff, and Kushner regarding the meeting in Islamabad. The discussions with Iran extended from early morning until late at night, lasting nearly 20 hours. Trump expressed that while he could elaborate on the meeting's details and the numerous achievements, the critical issue remains Iran's unwillingness to abandon its nuclear ambitions. He noted that the consensus reached in many areas was preferable to continuing military actions until the end. However, he stressed that these agreements are insignificant compared to the risk of nuclear power being in the hands of unpredictable individuals. Trump reiterated his long-standing position that Iran will never possess nuclear weapons, a stance he has maintained for many years.

Western banks are accelerating their withdrawal from commodity trade financing due to compliance and sanction risks linked to escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran. According to Odaily, this has led traders to turn to stablecoins for cross-border settlements. Banks are concerned that seemingly compliant transactions might indirectly expose them to sanctioned entities, prompting a reduction or exit from trade financing in affected regions. As traditional financial payment and settlement channels tighten, stablecoins, particularly USDT pegged to the dollar, are increasingly used as alternative settlement tools in emerging market trade payments. Data indicates that the market capitalization of stablecoins has surpassed $300 billion, with on-chain transaction volumes exceeding $4 trillion, accounting for approximately 30% of overall on-chain activity.

Iran has reopened the Strait of Hormuz under a two-week ceasefire, requiring tankers to pay a $1-per-barrel toll in Bitcoin for passage. According to NS3.AI, Hamid Hosseini stated that the system now processes 10 to 15 vessels daily, a significant decrease from the 135 vessels before the conflict. TRM Labs reported that since mid-March, Iran's military has collected up to $2 million per ship in Bitcoin, Chinese yuan, and potentially USDT.

中东停火消息短暂提振风险资产，但华尔街策略师警告，这场战争已在通胀、能源供应与美联储政策空间上留下难以迅速弥合的创伤。

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