Prediction markets are gaining traction in major Asian economies, with platforms like Polymarket reaching over $1 billion in weekly volume. According to NS3.AI, this growth occurs despite stringent gambling laws across the region. Industry experts highlight that Asian markets still face ambiguity in classifying blockchain-based prediction markets, leaving legal risks unresolved.

“美联储传声筒”Nick Timiraos 撰文指出，3 月新增就业 17.8 万个，扭转了此前 2 月的大幅下滑。失业率也降至 4.3%。但一些细节不太乐观，普通劳动者的工资增长放缓至疫情后复苏五年来最低的同比增速。将这两个波动较大的月份平均后可以更清晰地看出潜在趋势：月均新增仅 2.25 万个岗位。两年前，每月新增 2.25 万个就业岗位就足以引发警惕；而如今，这样的水平或许仍被视为可以接受。美联储官员仍在努力解释这一变化。旧金山联储主席戴利周五写道：“要让公众理解零就业增长的经济仍与充分就业相符并非易事。”在新的供给冲击再度来袭的情况下，这种局面尤为脆弱。如果伊朗战争持续，高燃料成本或商品短缺挤压企业和消费者，劳动力市场将缺乏缓冲来吸收冲击。与此同时，由于通胀担忧可能削弱降息的确定性，美联储的政策空间也更加有限。(金十)

Nick Timiraos, often referred to as the 'Fed's mouthpiece,' reported on April 4 that the U.S. added 178,000 jobs in March, reversing the significant decline seen in February. According to Jin10, the unemployment rate also fell to 4.3%. However, some details are less optimistic, as wage growth for ordinary workers has slowed to the lowest year-on-year rate since the post-pandemic recovery began five years ago. Averaging these two volatile months reveals a clearer underlying trend: an average monthly increase of only 22,500 jobs. Two years ago, such a level would have raised alarms, but today it might still be considered acceptable. Federal Reserve officials are still working to explain this change. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly wrote on Friday that it is not easy to make the public understand that an economy with zero job growth can still be consistent with full employment. This situation is particularly fragile if new supply shocks occur. If the war in Iran continues, high fuel costs or commodity shortages could squeeze businesses and consumers, leaving the labor market without a buffer to absorb the shock. Meanwhile, concerns about inflation may weaken the certainty of interest rate cuts, further limiting the Fed's policy space.

Despite a temporary cooling of tensions over the weekend, the United States continues its search for a crew member from an F-15E fighter jet shot down by Iran on Friday. According to BlockBeats, Tehran has maintained its aggressive stance towards Gulf Arab nations and Israel, with reports indicating a second U.S. military aircraft crashed in the Persian Gulf on the same day. The situation suggests that both sides are likely to remain on high alert next week, with expectations of U.S. ground forces potentially entering Iran. In addition to the ongoing conflict with Iran, next week's key macroeconomic event is the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, which analysts believe may confirm a hawkish shift indicated in the dot plot. The schedule of events is as follows: Monday at 22:00 UTC+8, the U.S. March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released. Tuesday from 15:50 to 16:30 UTC+8, the final March Services PMI for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK will be announced. Tuesday at 23:00 UTC+8, the U.S. March New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectation will be published. Wednesday at 00:35 UTC+8, 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak on monetary policy. Wednesday at 17:00 UTC+8, the Eurozone February PPI month rate and February retail sales month rate will be released. Thursday at 02:00 UTC+8, the Federal Reserve will release its monetary policy meeting minutes. Thursday at 20:30 UTC+8, the U.S. initial jobless claims, February core PCE price index year rate, February personal spending month rate, Q4 real GDP annualized quarter rate final value, Q4 real personal consumption expenditure quarter rate final value, Q4 core PCE price index annualized quarter rate final value, and February core PCE price index month rate will be announced. Friday at 20:30 UTC+8, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI year rate/core CPI year rate and March adjusted CPI month rate/core CPI month rate will be released. Friday at 22:00 UTC+8, the U.S. April one-year inflation rate expectation preliminary value, April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary value, and February factory orders month rate will be published. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the March CPI data on Friday, marking the first inflation data reflecting the impact of the conflict. FactSet's consensus forecast anticipates the CPI year-over-year increase to rise from 2.4% to 3.1%.

On April 4, Iran's top military command announced the deployment of a new air defense system. According to BlockBeats, this system was put into operation on Friday and is expected to provide comprehensive control over Iran's airspace. The development marks a significant enhancement in the country's defense capabilities.

The NCAA 'Final Four' is set to commence tomorrow morning, with Polymarket's real-time probabilities indicating the University of Michigan as the frontrunner with a 35% chance of winning the championship. According to Odaily, the University of Arizona follows closely with a 32% probability, the University of Illinois at 19%, and the University of Connecticut at 14%. The total trading volume for this event contract has surpassed $24.9 million. In the upcoming matches, the University of Connecticut will face the University of Illinois. Connecticut aims to prove their dynasty is still alive, asserting their dominance in college basketball, while Illinois seeks to herald a new era after a 21-year wait. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan will compete against the University of Arizona, with the main intrigue being whether Arizona can leverage their inside advantage to counter Michigan's efficient offense and if Michigan's three-point shooting can penetrate Arizona's top-tier defense. The NCAA 'March Madness' refers to the National Championship of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament. This event typically begins in March, featuring a single-elimination format, known for its intense schedule and fierce competition.

Albert Guerra has admitted to charges of bank fraud and money laundering, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of California. Guerra was accused of stealing over $170,000 from customers of West Coast banks by pretending to be a fraud investigator. According to NS3.AI, he employed rideshare drivers to gather cash from his victims. Guerra is set to be sentenced in June.

Odaily Seer 先知频道监测显示， NCAA“最终四强”明早开战，Polymarket 实时概率显示密歇根大学夺冠概率暂报 35%，位列第一；亚利桑那大学夺冠概率暂报 32%，位列第二；伊利诺伊大学夺冠概率暂报 19%，位列第三；康涅狄格大学夺冠概率暂报 14%，位列第四。截至目前，该事件合约的总交易量已超 2490 万美元。根据“最终四强”赛程，康涅狄格大学将对战伊利诺伊大学，康大想要证明王朝尚未结束，他们仍然是大学篮球的统治者，而伊利诺伊则渴望告诉世界新时代已经到来，21 年的等待即将结出硕果；密歇根大学将对战亚利桑那大学，比赛最大的悬念在于亚利桑那能否凭借内线优势压制密歇根的高效进攻，密歇根的三分火力能否突破亚利桑那的顶级防守。NCAA“疯狂三月”指的是美国大学体育协会（NCAA）男子篮球一级联赛的全国锦标赛。该赛事通常于每年三月开启，采用单败淘汰制，赛程密集、竞争激烈，故得名“疯狂三月”。Odaily Seer 先知频道持续关注预测市场，在定价之前，看见变化。

伊朗高级官员莫赫森·礼萨伊（Mohsen Rezaee）在社交平台 X 上发文称，与其撤换美国将领，不如罢免特朗普。他发文表示：“他们曾声称已摧毁伊朗的防空系统，一如既往，他们撒谎了。或许与其撤换军事指挥官，不如罢免特朗普。”此前有报道称，美国国防部长赫格塞斯已解除多名美国高级军方官员职务，其中包括参谋长。(金十)

Peter Steinberger addressed Anthropic's decision to ban OpenClaw, stating that OpenClaw had extended invitations to Anthropic and over ten other companies to join its non-profit organization. According to NS3.AI, Steinberger noted that Anthropic did not respond to the invitation. He emphasized that OpenClaw functions independently and highlighted that nearly all the other invited companies accepted the invitation.

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