U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have been in ongoing discussions regarding the situation with Iran. According to Odaily, Trump reiterated to Netanyahu the importance of preventing Iran from developing a nuclear program and ensuring it does not possess enriched uranium. Trump emphasized that no final agreement will be signed until these conditions are met. The U.S. has also updated Israel on recent negotiations with Iran concerning the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the drafting of related agreements. Netanyahu expressed Israel's right to act against potential threats on all fronts, including Lebanon, and praised Trump's efforts to ensure Israel's national security. The Israeli Prime Minister's office has not yet commented on these developments.

Markets head into the week of May 26 with three interconnected themes dominating the outlook: the potential for an interim US-Iran peace agreement that could restore risk appetite across equities and crypto, a series of Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan speeches that may clarify the next stage of rate policy on both sides of the Pacific, and a heavy slate of US economic data headlined by the core PCE inflation index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — that will either reinforce or challenge the current 68% rate hike odds priced into year-end.US markets are closed Monday May 26 for Memorial Day. CME precious metals and US crude oil futures trading is suspended at 02:30 Beijing time on May 26, US stock and Treasury futures at 01:00 Beijing time, and ICE Brent crude oil futures end earlier at 01:30 Beijing time.The dominant theme: US-Iran interim agreementIran, the United States, Pakistan, and several foreign media outlets have all signaled progress in negotiations over the nearly three-month conflict, with Al Arabiya TV reporting the next round of talks is tentatively scheduled for June 5. If preliminary agreement outcomes are confirmed and implemented next week, capital markets could see a meaningful return of risk appetite — with US stocks and cryptocurrencies among the primary beneficiaries.The stakes are significant. Oil's 55% surge since the conflict began in February has been the primary driver of inflation re-acceleration, Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, and the macro risk-off conditions that have pushed Bitcoin from $83,000 to near $74,000 over the past two weeks. A credible path to Strait of Hormuz reopening and conflict resolution would simultaneously reduce oil prices, ease inflation pressure, compress rate hike odds, and restore the risk-on backdrop that drove crypto's April recovery.The macro calendar: key events day by dayMonday May 26 — US markets closed for Memorial Day. Reduced liquidity across futures markets. Any Iran deal developments over the weekend will be the primary price driver in early Asian and European trading.Tuesday May 26 at 22:00 — US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for May. Following the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index's record low reading of 44.8 last Friday, the Conference Board measure will provide a second read on household confidence. A second consecutive historically weak reading would reinforce the stagflationary narrative. Any surprise to the upside would be read as constructive for risk assets.Wednesday May 28 at 08:00 — Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at a monetary policy conference hosted by the Bank of Japan. With Japan's 30-year bond yields having hit a record 4% last week — their highest level in history — Ueda's remarks will be closely watched for signals about the BOJ's intentions around its own rate path. Any hawkish surprise from Tokyo would add to global bond yield pressure and tighten financial conditions further for risk assets including crypto.Wednesday May 28 at 20:15 — ADP Employment Change for the period ending May 9. An early read on private sector hiring that will set expectations ahead of the following week's official payrolls report.Thursday May 29 at 20:30 — The week's most data-intensive session. Five releases land simultaneously: US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 23; US April core PCE price index year-on-year and month-on-month — the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure and the single most important data point of the week for rate expectations; US April personal spending month-on-month; revised US Q1 annualized real GDP quarter-on-quarter; and US April durable goods orders month-on-month.The core PCE reading deserves particular attention. Unlike CPI, which has surprised to the upside for two consecutive months, core PCE strips out more volatile components and is the measure the Fed explicitly targets at 2%. If core PCE comes in above expectations — consistent with the recent CPI and PPI trend — it would add significant weight to the rate hike case and pressure risk assets. A softer reading could provide meaningful relief by creating room for the Fed to pause rather than hike.Thursday May 29 at 20:55 — New York Fed President John Williams, a permanent FOMC voting member, delivers a keynote at a conference co-organized by the Central Bank of Iceland. Williams is among the most influential voices on the Fed's rate-setting committee. Any commentary on the current inflation outlook or rate path will move markets.Thursday May 29 at 22:15 — St. Louis Fed President Musaleem, a 2028 FOMC voting member, speaks. Watch for any commentary on the balance between inflation risks and growth concerns.Friday May 30 at 07:30 — Japan April unemployment rate.Friday May 30 at 18:50 — Kansas City Fed President Schmid, a 2028 FOMC voting member, speaks.Friday May 30 at 21:10 — Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speaks. Bowman is a permanent FOMC voting member whose views carry direct policy weight. Her commentary following the core PCE data will provide the clearest end-of-week signal of how the Fed's internal consensus is developing under Warsh's leadership.

Saudi Arabia's Al Arabiya TV reported on May 24 that the next round of negotiations between the United States and Iran is tentatively scheduled for June 5, citing unnamed sources familiar with the discussions. The reported date follows President Trump's Truth Social announcement on Saturday that a peace agreement has been "largely negotiated" among the US, Iran, and a coalition of Middle Eastern nations including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain — with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz included as a key element of any final deal. A confirmed June 5 negotiating session would provide markets with a concrete timeline for the next phase of de-escalation — a development that has already begun moving oil prices lower, with WTI dropping to $96 and Brent falling to $103 from the $108 to $112 levels seen earlier this week. For Bitcoin and crypto markets, the June 5 date is a key watch point. The Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption have been identified by multiple analysts including Fundstrat's Tom Lee as the single largest macro headwind for risk assets in 2026 — driving oil's 55% surge since February, re-accelerating inflation, and pushing Federal Reserve rate hike odds above 68% for year-end. A credible path to conflict resolution and Strait reopening could meaningfully reverse each of those pressures simultaneously.

Fundstrat chairman Tom Lee struck a constructive but nuanced tone on US equities in a CNBC interview on May 24, arguing that the stock market's fundamental picture remains healthy despite rising oil prices and bond yields — while flagging a set of specific risks that could create pressure in the second half of 2026. The bull case: healthy fundamentals and AI dominance Lee argued that the US economy possesses structural advantages that distinguish it from other major economies and support continued equity market strength. He cited the US's dominant position in artificial intelligence technology, relative energy independence compared to Europe and Asia, and strong consumer resilience as the three pillars of his constructive view. "Compared to the beginning of the year, US stocks still have greater upside potential before the end of the year," Lee said. "We have some issues to digest later this year, but currently the fundamentals are healthy and supported by earnings." The earnings backdrop Lee referenced has been one of the most consistent surprises of the current cycle. Mega-cap technology companies have repeatedly beaten revenue and profit expectations despite macro headwinds — a dynamic that has helped the Nasdaq recover strongly from April's lows even as Bitcoin and other risk assets have struggled. AI IPOs: trillions in wealth creation, with a supply caveat Lee identified the upcoming IPOs of major AI companies — specifically OpenAI and SpaceX — as a significant catalyst for wealth creation and market stimulation in the second half of 2026. OpenAI raised $122 billion at an $850 billion valuation in late March and is racing toward a public listing. SpaceX, which merged with xAI in February and was valued at $1.25 trillion, confidentially filed its IPO prospectus in April. Lee argued that these listings will generate trillions of dollars in new wealth for founders, early investors, and employees — capital that will subsequently flow into consumption and broader market activity, providing a meaningful economic and market stimulus. However, Lee also flagged the flip side of large-scale IPOs: share supply pressure. As post-IPO lock-up periods expire and early investors gain the ability to sell, the market will face an increase in available stock supply — a technical headwind that can weigh on prices even in a fundamentally healthy environment. Lee warned this dynamic could create meaningful pressure later in the year as SpaceX and OpenAI shares begin unlocking. AI and semiconductors: not a bubble On the question of whether AI and semiconductor stocks have entered bubble territory — a concern that has grown as the Nasdaq's AI-driven rally has pushed valuations to elevated levels — Lee was direct in his dismissal. The market is chasing genuinely scarce assets, he argued, not fictional narratives. "Demand for AI-related products remains strong, while supply remains insufficient," Lee said. The supply constraint on AI infrastructure — compute, chips, data center capacity, and specialized talent — means that the companies building that infrastructure are not being overvalued on speculative future earnings but on real and growing current demand that supply cannot yet match. In Lee's framework, that is the opposite of a bubble condition. The risks Lee is watching: midterms, oil, and IPO unlocks Despite his overall constructive stance, Lee laid out three specific risks for the second half of 2026. Seasonal uncertainty from the midterm elections — which historically create market volatility as investors reprice political risk and potential policy shifts. A liquidation period tied to oil product inventory shortages — consistent with the broader energy market disruption the Iran conflict has created. And the share supply pressure from SpaceX and OpenAI IPO lock-up expirations noted above. Lee also clarified his earlier prediction of a stock market correction, explaining that the bear markets he anticipated have already occurred in specific segments. "We've already experienced bear markets in the MAG-7 and software sectors, and other stocks will experience bear markets later this year, but the MAG-7 and software sectors will be spared this time," he said — framing the coming correction as a rotation into previously untouched areas of the market rather than a broad-based decline. What it means for Bitcoin and crypto Lee's constructive equity view has direct implications for crypto markets given the strengthening correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq that has developed through 2026. If US stocks continue grinding higher into year-end as Lee projects — supported by AI earnings strength and IPO-driven wealth creation — the risk-on backdrop that has historically supported Bitcoin outperformance becomes more durable. The caveat is timing. Lee's identified risks — midterm uncertainty, oil inventory disruptions, and IPO supply pressure — are all second-half 2026 phenomena. The near-term picture remains dominated by the inflation data, Fed rate expectations, and geopolitical developments that have driven Bitcoin's retreat from $83,000 to $74,000 to $76,000 over the past two weeks. Lee's year-end optimism provides a longer-term framework but does not resolve the immediate macro headwinds Bitcoin faces heading into June.

BASE ecosystem token VVV has seen its market capitalization exceed $2.25 billion, currently reported at $2.27 billion, with a 24-hour increase of 13.31%. According to Odaily, investors are advised to exercise caution due to the significant price volatility of meme coins.

Bitcoin has lost the structural upward momentum that defined its recovery from February's $60,000 lows, and every bounce in the current environment remains unconfirmed until a key on-chain indicator returns above zero, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler. The warning comes alongside data showing that 30-day Bitcoin ETF flow momentum has collapsed 97% from its December 2024 peak — painting a picture of an institutional demand environment that has deteriorated far more severely than spot price alone suggests. The structural impulse signal: what it means and why it matters Adler's core framework distinguishes between price movements that are supported by genuine structural buying pressure and those that are not. Bitcoin's on-chain Impulse indicator — which measures whether the market's underlying demand structure is in a bullish or bearish configuration — has fallen below zero, a threshold that has historically separated confirmed uptrends from bear market rallies. The implication is direct: until Impulse returns above zero, Bitcoin bounces — including the recovery from $74,250 toward $77,000 following Trump's Iran peace deal announcement — cannot be treated as confirmed reversals. They are potential relief rallies within a risk-off regime rather than evidence that the structural trend has shifted. "Bitcoin lost its structural bullish impulse exactly when the macro backdrop sharply deteriorated," Adler wrote in his weekly analysis. "This is an important signal: the market looks like a risk-off regime, where every BTC bounce remains unconfirmed until Impulse returns above zero." When macro enters override mode Adler's macro framework is built on three indicators — the Dollar Index (DXY), 10-year US Treasury yield, and the VIX volatility index — and the relationship between those indicators and Bitcoin's on-chain structure. His key insight is that macro factors do not always override on-chain signals. Most of the time, on-chain data provides a reliable independent read of Bitcoin's supply and demand dynamics regardless of what traditional markets are doing. But there are periods — which Adler calls "override mode" — when the macro backdrop becomes so dominant that even a constructive on-chain setup temporarily loses its predictive power. The current environment, characterized by 10-year Treasury yields above 4.5%, UK gilts at 28-year highs, VIX elevated from geopolitical stress, and the Federal Reserve now pricing rate hikes rather than cuts, meets that threshold. "Not all macro fluctuations will disrupt on-chain structure," Adler noted. "But when macro factors truly enter a dominant mode, even if on-chain data is positive, the market may temporarily lose upward momentum." That caveat — temporarily — is important. Override mode does not permanently break on-chain signals. It suppresses them until the macro regime shifts. ETF momentum: 97% collapse from peak The newly launched CryptoQuant Bitcoin ETF dashboard provides quantitative context for just how far institutional demand has deteriorated. The 30-day ETF Flow Momentum currently sits at $362.8 million — a figure that sounds meaningful in isolation but represents a 97% collapse from the $13.21 billion peak recorded in December 2024, when institutional demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs was at its most intense following the products' first-year success. The momentum indicator also provides historical context for the current phase. The low reached negative $5.36 billion in November 2025 — the period of maximum ETF outflow pressure — before recovering through the April inflow cycle that brought cumulative net inflows close to $60 billion. The current reading of $362.8 million sits between those extremes, indicating a market that has cooled significantly from peak accumulation without yet reaching the kind of structural outflow pressure seen at cycle lows. Whether momentum continues declining toward negative territory — signaling a structural outflow phase — or stabilizes and begins recovering will be one of the clearest signals of where institutional demand is heading in the weeks ahead. The Coinbase Premium Index: is US demand real? Adler highlighted the Coinbase Premium Index as a critical companion indicator to ETF flow data. The index measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase — the primary platform for US institutional and retail spot demand — and global reference prices. When the premium holds sustainably above zero, it confirms that genuine US buying is supporting the market. When it turns negative, even a rising Bitcoin price may not reflect real American buyer demand — the move could be driven by offshore markets or derivatives rather than spot accumulation in the world's most important institutional market. The practical implication for traders is significant. A Bitcoin price increase accompanied by a negative Coinbase Premium is a less reliable signal than one accompanied by a positive premium, because the absence of US spot demand removes one of the most durable sources of structural support. Anyone watching recent price action and asking whether to buy or treat the bounce as a trap should be cross-referencing the Coinbase Premium alongside ETF flow momentum — two indicators that together provide a more complete picture of whether genuine institutional demand is behind the move. The seven-layer framework Adler's Weekly Engine breaks the Bitcoin market down into seven analytical layers to assess what is actually holding price up and what structural forces are positioned to push it lower. The framework integrates on-chain impulse signals, macro override conditions, ETF flow momentum, Coinbase Premium dynamics, and additional supply and demand indicators to provide a comprehensive read of where the market stands — going well beyond simple price analysis to identify whether a given price level is genuinely supported or merely sustained by temporary factors. In the current environment, that multi-layer analysis is pointing consistently in the same direction: risk-off conditions, unconfirmed bounces, declining ETF momentum, and a macro backdrop in override mode. Until the Impulse indicator returns above zero and the Coinbase Premium confirms sustained US demand, the structural case for Bitcoin's next leg higher remains incomplete.

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