The likelihood of a diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran before April 18 has increased to 54%, marking a 27% rise in the past 24 hours. According to Odaily, the probability of such a meeting occurring before April 30 has also surged to 94%, with a 22% increase over the same period. The contract rules for this event define a diplomatic meeting as an official gathering where representatives from the U.S. and Iran, authorized by their respective governments, engage in negotiations or diplomatic activities concerning U.S.-Iran relations. Meetings conducted indirectly, such as through designated mediators or coordinators with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, also fall under the category of diplomatic meetings. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry has extended an invitation to the U.S. and Iran to hold a second round of talks in Islamabad. However, the date and time for these negotiations have not yet been confirmed. Additionally, on the 13th, Iran's Deputy Interior Minister Ali Zainivand commented on U.S. President Donald Trump's remarks about 'destroying' Iranian civilization, dismissing them as a 'joke' and stating that those unfamiliar with Iranian civilization cannot appreciate its strength.

Shanghai Futures Exchange announced changes to margin requirements for gold and silver futures contracts on April 14. According to Jin10, the exchange set the price limit for the gold AU2607 contract at 17%, with a hedging margin ratio of 18% and a general margin ratio of 19%. For the silver AG2704 contract, the price limit is set at 20%, with a hedging margin ratio of 21% and a general margin ratio of 22%.

分析师 Markus Thielen 表示，Coinbase 比特币溢价近期回升至 2025 年 10 月以来高位，显示美国市场买盘有所改善，部分机构资金或已重新参与。数据显示，当前 Coinbase 平台 BTC 价格持续高于其他交易所，反映需求端出现回暖迹象。此前溢价一度转为折价，被市场解读为情绪偏弱，如今重新进入溢价区间，或意味着需求端逐步企稳。此外，截至 4 月中旬，比特币 ETF 仍维持月度净流入趋势，若持续延续，或进一步强化资金面回暖信号。

Odaily Seer 先知频道监测显示，“美伊会在 4 月 18 日前进行外交会晤”概率涨至 54%，24H 上涨 27%。此外，“美伊会在 4 月 30 日前进行外交会晤”概率涨至 94%，24H 上涨 22%。该事件合约规则，外交会晤是指美国和伊朗代表以官方身份出席并获授权代表各自政府就美伊关系进行谈判或外交活动的正式会晤。间接举行的会晤，例如通过指定的调解人、协调人或对话者在相关政府知情和授权下进行的会晤，也属于外交会晤的范畴。巴基斯坦外交部表示，邀请美国和伊朗来伊斯兰堡进行第二轮谈判。尚未确定美伊谈判第二轮的日期和时间。此外，伊朗内政部副部长阿里·泽尼万德 13 日表示，美国总统特朗普关于“摧毁”伊朗文明的言论是个“笑话”，并称“那些不了解伊朗文明的人无法领略其力量”。Odaily Seer 先知频道持续关注预测市场，在定价之前，看见变化。

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is increasing its scrutiny of cryptocurrency tax compliance as the April 15 filing deadline approaches. According to NS3.AI, a recent report highlights that 61% of U.S. crypto investors are still unaware of the new reporting requirements set to take effect in 2025. These rules mandate brokers to report digital asset transaction income to the IRS using Form 1099-DA for the first time. Despite this, investors are still responsible for calculating their own cost basis. The report also reveals that 52% of investors are concerned about potential penalties due to filing errors.

A recent survey conducted by Bank of America among global fund managers reveals diverse expectations regarding central bank policies. According to Jin10, 58% of investors anticipate that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates within the next 12 months. Meanwhile, 46% of investors expect the European Central Bank to raise interest rates during the same period. These findings highlight the varying outlooks on monetary policy adjustments in major economies.

据加密分析师 余烬@EmberCN 监测，约 8785 万枚币安人生（价值约 1493 万美元）此前由疑似相关地址通过 9 个钱包自币安转出后，币安人生价格上涨约 59%。当前疑似相关地址集在链上共持有约 1.467 亿枚币安人生，占总供应量约 14.67%，对应价值约 3980 万美元。

Bitget 今日正式上线 CFD 跟单交易功能，将跟单服务拓展至外汇、黄金、原油及股票指数市场。在全球宏观波动加剧、加密用户跨资产配置需求持续上升的背景下，Bitget CFD 业务近期单日交易量已突破 60 亿美元。此次新功能沿用了平台成熟的跟单框架，用户最低仅需 50 USDT 即可跟随专业交易员策略，进一步降低普通用户参与传统金融市场的门槛。在产品层面，CFD 跟单交易深度集成 MT5 基础设施，账户开通与提现流程均实现自动化处理，整体耗时控制在 3 秒以内。机制方面，Bitget 采用高水位线（HWM）分润规则，仅对跟单者新增盈利部分进行分润，确保收益分配公平透明，符合条件的交易员最高可获得 30% 分润比例。核心数据按小时更新，收益按日结算，进一步保障整体执行的透明性与可追踪性。

Iran's Deputy Interior Minister, Ali Zolnivand, criticized U.S. President Donald Trump's comments about "destroying" Iranian civilization, calling them a "joke." According to Odaily, Zolnivand stated that those unfamiliar with Iranian civilization cannot appreciate its strength. He also mentioned that Iran has established command centers in the northwest and southeast, with armed forces monitoring every movement along the borders with "absolute superiority."

SolanaFloor reports that the founder of Solana ecosystem application Believe, Pasternak, is facing charges in a New York court. According to Foresight News, Pasternak is accused of involvement in a crypto rug pull scheme, which resulted in millions of dollars in losses.

只有把安全当作持续可量化成本，而非一次性勾选任务，才能活下来。

自加密货币市场诞生以来，中心化交易所（CEX）在为零售和机构用户提供流动性方面发挥了关键作用。

Hungary’s political reset following the victory of Péter Magyar and his Tisza Party may open the door to a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment—but for now, any shift remains purely speculative.

OpenAI’s revenue chief said enterprise customers are increasingly moving toward Amazon’s Bedrock platform, arguing that the company’s long-standing Microsoft partnership has made it harder to reach some clients.

AI 需求量级已经突破了传统电力规划、半导体设备产能、存储价格模型、机器人装机假设的所有预测区间。

The Polkadot-based cross-chain protocol Hyperbridge suffered a critical exploit that allowed an attacker to mint 1 billion fake bridged DOT tokens on Ethereum, cashing out roughly $237,000 and exposing a key failure in its proof-based verification system.

Meta is building an AI version of Mark Zuckerberg that can talk to employees, give feedback and act like a digital stand-in for the CEO using his voice, behaviour and public statements.

杠杆资金已基本出清，机构正在持续吸筹，而比特币也处于关键价值区间。这或许是一个隐藏的买入良机？

Jeff Yan如何将Hyperliquid打造成全球人均盈利最高的初创公司

未来五周，将是《清晰法案》获得突破的最新窗口期；若8月前仍不能通过，法案很可能胎死腹中。