JPMorgan 发布报告称，2026 年一季度数字资产流入总额约为 110 亿美元，年化约 440 亿美元，约为 2025 年同期的三分之一。分析师 Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 等人指出，散户和机构投资者资金流入较少甚至为负，一季度资金流入主要来自 Strategy 的比特币购买和集中的加密风投融资。一季度加密市场整体下跌，总市值下降约 20%，比特币下跌约 23%，ETH 跌幅超 30%。抛售由宏观经济和地缘政治压力驱动，山寨币跌幅更大。季度末价格趋于稳定，比特币在 7 万美元附近整固。报告指出，比特币和 ETH 的 CME 期货持仓较 2024 和 2025 年有所减弱，现货比特币和 ETH ETF 在一季度出现净流出，主要集中在 1 月，3 月比特币 ETF 资金流入有所回升。Strategy 仍为主要买方，主要通过股权发行为比特币购买提供资金，其他企业持有者则相对保守，部分出售比特币用于回购。比特币矿商在本季度为净卖方。加密风投资金年化节奏高于前两年，但集中在少数大型交易中，资金持续流向基础设施、稳定币、支付和代币化领域。

Ethan Buchman has highlighted concerns regarding the capital inefficiency of the cryptocurrency market's instant settlement model. According to NS3.AI, Buchman pointed out that the current system requires each trade to settle independently rather than being netted. This design compels firms to pre-fund transactions, move more assets than necessary, and tie up liquidity as trading volumes increase.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has reached a historic peak, experiencing a 6% increase in a single day. According to ChainCatcher, this significant rise marks a new milestone for the index.

The United Arab Emirates has accused Iran of launching missile and drone attacks following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire. According to Odaily, the UAE's Ministry of Defense stated on social media that Iran has launched 17 ballistic missiles and 35 drones since the ceasefire took effect, with defense systems successfully intercepting them. Kuwait's Ministry of Defense also accused Iran of continuing attacks post-ceasefire, highlighting a Wednesday morning assault as evidence of ongoing threats to the country's security and critical infrastructure. It remains unclear whether these reports of continued Iranian aggression are a response to Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon or an attempt to assert its influence in the region. Since the ceasefire, several other attacks have occurred in the area, including an assault on a crucial Saudi oil pipeline that transports crude from the Gulf to the Red Sea for export.

Morph has released its 'State of Stablecoins' report, forecasting that stablecoins will account for approximately 10% of global cross-border payments by 2030. According to Foresight News, the report reveals that the current annual transaction volume of stablecoins has reached $33 trillion, surpassing the combined total of Visa and Mastercard, which stands at $25.5 trillion. The report highlights the expanding application of stablecoins in the real economy, with around 60% of fund flows driven by B2B payments. There is a notable increase in corporate adoption for fund management and procurement scenarios. Morph predicts that by 2026, the annual settlement volume of stablecoins could exceed $50 trillion, and by 2027, AI agents are expected to become major initiators of transactions. By 2030, the market size could reach $1.9 trillion. Morph has also announced the launch of a $150 million Payment Accelerator to support institutions planning to deploy stablecoin solutions and advance on-chain payment infrastructure development.

JPMorgan has reported a slowdown in digital asset inflows, estimating them at approximately $11 billion for the first quarter of 2026. According to NS3.AI, this figure suggests an annualized pace of about $44 billion, which is roughly one-third of the inflows recorded in 2025. Analysts, including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, noted that the majority of the inflows so far this year have been driven by Strategy's bitcoin acquisitions and concentrated crypto venture funding. In contrast, retail and institutional investor flows have been minimal or negative year-to-date.

4月8日晚，Liquid Capital 创始人易理华在币安广场直播中表示，他自2015年底进入加密行业，经历过两三轮牛熊后，整体仍倾向于“长周期看多”，但前提是不能过度乐观，必须正视市场的周期性与“巨大的波动性”。在他看来，加密资产的回撤与反弹幅度都远超传统市场，投资者需要在波动中保持清醒与风险意识。 谈及今年市场压力，易理华将其归因于多重外部因素叠加：宏观层面降息预期未兑现、地缘局势扰动、政策推进不及预期，以及部分叙事（如“国家战略”等）降温；再结合四年周期影响，他认为回调可能超出原先计划。但他同时强调，这更多是外部金融环境与周期共同放大短期波动，长期角度对ETH的核心判断并未改变。 在策略层面，他认为2022-2023年后一级投资难度显著上升：早期一级项目周期更短、流动性释放更快，但随着市场结构及解锁/流通安排变化，投资人窗口期明显收窄，一级“没以前好做”，因此他逐步减少一级出手，并将更多精力放到二级市场的研究与机会捕捉上。 易理华还总结自己观察到的投资人分化：一类“机构化”加密VC虽有框架与研报，但在趋势退去后缺乏稳定盈利模式，生存压力加大；第二类深耕细分赛道、具备专业壁垒并能产生现金流的投资人更稳健；第三类来自传统金融、交易更克制、偏向核心资产长期配置的人，往往在周期中表现更好。他分享称，曾在2018年建议一位传统投资人以约5%资产配置BTC，对方长期持有、不参与山寨币交易，后续该仓位在资产中占比明显提升。 此外，他强调AI正在加速重塑竞争格局：过去两三个月他投入更多精力学习AI，并推动被投企业向AI转型，认为未来不理解或不会使用AI的个人与团队可能被快速淘汰。 针对外界“推高再退出”等争议，他回应称投资最终取决于资产价值与趋势，大体量市场难以被单一参与者推动。

Key TakeawaysToken Terminal reports $180B stablecoins on Ethereum, all-time high.Ethereum controls ~60% of global stablecoin supply.Total stablecoin market reached $315B in Q1, signaling strong liquidity growth.Institutions like BlackRock and JPMorgan expanding tokenization on Ethereum.Ethereum Stablecoin Supply Reaches Record $180 BillionEthereum’s stablecoin ecosystem has reached a new milestone, with total onchain supply hitting $180 billion, according to Token Terminal.The figure represents roughly 60% of total global stablecoin supply, reinforcing Ethereum’s position as the dominant settlement layer for digital dollars.Over the past three years, Ethereum’s stablecoin supply has grown by approximately 150%, reflecting rising adoption across both crypto-native and institutional use cases.Institutional Adoption Drives GrowthThe expansion is closely tied to institutional activity in tokenized assets and onchain finance.Major financial players—including BlackRock, JPMorgan, and Amundi—have launched tokenized products on Ethereum, increasing demand for stablecoins as settlement and liquidity layers.Jamie Dimon recently acknowledged the rise of blockchain-based competition, citing stablecoins, smart contracts, and tokenization as emerging forces reshaping finance.Tokenization Trend Signals Trillion-Dollar OpportunityLooking ahead, Token Terminal projects that $1.7 trillion could move onchain across networks over the next four years.Ethereum alone could capture up to $850 billion in new flows by 2030 if current growth trends continue.Separately, Standard Chartered has estimated that more than $1 trillion could shift from traditional banking into stablecoins by 2028, further supporting long-term demand.Ethereum Maintains Dominance Across EcosystemData from RWA.xyz places Ethereum’s stablecoin value slightly lower at $168 billion, but still confirms its leadership with 56% market share.When including Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) chains and layer-2 networks such as Arbitrum, zkSync, and Base, Ethereum’s effective share rises above 65%.This dominance highlights Ethereum’s role as the primary infrastructure layer for:StablecoinsTokenized real-world assets (RWAs)Institutional onchain finance

据 ZachXBT 披露，一匿名信源共享了从朝鲜内部支付服务器窃取的数据，涵盖 390 个账户、聊天记录及加密货币交易信息。自 2025 年 11 月底至今，相关支付钱包地址共收到逾 350 万美元，资金经由交易所转出或通过 Payoneer 等平台兑换为法币存入中国银行账户。链上追踪显示，内部支付地址与已知朝鲜 IT 工作者集群存在关联，其中一个 Tron 支付地址已于 2025 年 12 月被 Tether 冻结。用户列表中三家关联公司已被 OFAC 制裁，包括 Sobaeksu。ZachXBT 已整理完整组织架构图，数据范围覆盖 2025 年 12 月至 2026 年 2 月。

The Russell 2000 Index has achieved its highest level in over a month, experiencing a 3.4% increase. According to ChainCatcher, this marks a significant rise for the index, reflecting positive market movements.

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Coinbase 正式将 x402 协议贡献给 Linux 基金会，使其成为一项中立的互联网标准。

漂移案暴露了稳定币法律的空白：Circle拥有冻结资金的能力，却无强制义务，且在执行冻结时缺乏“避风港”法律保护。

Ray Dalio,Ray Dalio 新文：世界正在进入战争周期 金色财经,我们正处在一场短期不会结束的世界大战中。

《金钱自由》不仅是一次个人复盘，更是一场关于时代、技术与权力边界的真实记录。

投资的世界里，有时候最「疯魔」的逻辑，背后可能是最冷静的算计。

Iran’s Bitcoin mining power has collapsed by 77% over the past quarter as conflict intensifies in the region, yet the global network remains largely intact—underscoring a critical reality: Bitcoin’s hashrate is shaped more by market economics than by war.

Elon Musk has amended his lawsuit against OpenAI to seek the removal of CEO Sam Altman and President Greg Brockman and wants any damages to go to the company’s charity arm.

UBS and a consortium of leading Swiss lenders are launching a 2026 sandbox to test a Swiss franc stablecoin, signaling a coordinated push to bring blockchain-based payments into the heart of traditional finance.

这是一份关于预测市场杠杆机制的概览报告，涵盖了当前正在构建的模型、运作方式以及存在的缺陷。