The growth of the U.S. prediction market is reportedly built on an unstable foundation, primarily benefiting from regulatory arbitrage opportunities. According to Odaily, the lack of comprehensive regulations across various states allows users to engage in sports betting through prediction markets. Data from Dune Analytics indicates that by 2025, sports-related transactions will account for approximately 85% of Kalshi's trading volume and about 39% for Polymarket. Devin Ryan, Head of Financial Technology Research at Citizens Bank, suggests that the market requires robust integrity rules and an increase in non-sports market trading volumes. Currently, the market size for predicting January's CPI inflation data on Kalshi is under $1 million, and the core inflation prediction market is less than $30,000, which is insufficient liquidity to attract institutional participation. Furthermore, the U.S. prediction market is experiencing a 'fragile prosperity,' with growth heavily reliant on regulatory gray areas and substantial marketing investments. Should regulations tighten or user interest wane, growth could face significant pressure. There is also regulatory contention, as prediction markets often claim to be event contract trading under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), while state regulators adopt a more cautious stance. These legal disputes may ultimately require a Supreme Court decision.

BRICS has significantly increased its membership and influence, now accounting for 35-40% of the global GDP and nearly half of the world's population. According to NS3.AI, the bloc is developing alternative financial systems, such as the gold-backed BRICS Unit currency and BRICS Pay, to lessen reliance on the U.S. dollar. Despite facing internal disagreements, notably from India, and external challenges like trade tariff threats, BRICS is enhancing its economic and geopolitical importance.

X product lead and Solana advisor Nikita Bier announced plans to integrate video editing features similar to other social applications within X. According to PANews, Bier anticipates a development cycle of approximately three months for this project. However, he managed to create a complete browser-based video editor prototype in just 15 minutes using new tools, which led him to believe that AI tools could soon replace some functions of traditional software suites like Adobe. Bier also forecasts a significant decline in the demand for manual video editing in the coming months as AI technology advances. He highlighted the challenges faced by product developers due to rapid changes in technological capabilities and user behavior, making it increasingly difficult for companies to accurately predict product forms and demand structures in the near future.

Robert Kiyosaki, author of 'Rich Dad Poor Dad,' addressed criticism on the X platform regarding his previous statement about ceasing to accumulate silver at $60, Bitcoin at $6,000, and gold at $300. According to Odaily, Kiyosaki clarified that he is aware of his Bitcoin purchase cost, approximately $6,000, but does not focus on the exact purchase date. He criticized those questioning the authenticity of his statements based on the timing of his investments. Kiyosaki further questioned the motives of community members overly concerned with purchase dates, emphasizing his focus on asset price ranges and long-term value. He stated that if Bitcoin's price falls back to $6,000, he plans to continue buying without regard to the specific purchase time. He also revealed his current intention to increase his gold holdings, prioritizing asset allocation results, such as the quantities of Bitcoin, gold, silver, and Ethereum he holds, over the exact acquisition times. Kiyosaki advised investors to avoid associating with those who focus excessively on acquisition dates at the expense of asset value and price, advocating for an investment mindset oriented towards long-term value.

Samsung Electronics is set to begin shipping its next-generation high-bandwidth memory, HBM4, following the Lunar New Year holiday. According to Jin10, industry insiders revealed that Samsung plans to start deliveries to NVIDIA as early as the third week of February. The HBM4 memory will be used in NVIDIA's upcoming AI accelerator platform, Vera Rubin. NVIDIA is expected to showcase the Vera Rubin product featuring Samsung's HBM4 at the NVIDIA GTC 2026 conference next month.

Forward Industries (FWDI) holds the largest public SOL treasury, now facing a $1B paper loss as shares fall 87% from peak. source: https://coincu.com/crypto/solana-giant-fwdi-sits-on-1b-paper-loss/

据 Arkham 监测，大约八小时前，一新建钱包分两笔从币安提取总计 1697 万枚 Meteora（MET），价值约合 370 万美元。

Qatar is reportedly teaming up with Microsoft to build artificial intelligence systems that would cater to government services. source: https://www.cryptopolitan.com/qatar-taps-microsoft-to-build-ai-systems/

Spot investors and traders aren’t on the same page right now. source: https://ambcrypto.com/solana-why-etf-money-is-still-coming-despite-sols-price-action/

分析指出美国预测市场的繁荣是建立在一个不稳定的基础上，主要得益于监管套利空间，比如目前美国各州暂无较为完善的制度去监管用户通过预测市场形式参与体育赛事押注，Dune Analytics 数据显示 2025 年体育类交易占 Kalshi 交易量约 85%，Polymarket 占比约为 39%。Citizens Bank 金融技术研究主管 Devin Ryan 认为，市场需要建立完善的诚信规则，并且非体育类市场的交易量需要提升，目前 Kalshi 上预测 1 月份 CPI 通胀数据的市场规模不足 100 万美元，预测核心通胀市场规模不足 3 万美元，这样的流动性不足以吸引机构参与。此外，美国预测市场当前呈现“脆弱繁荣”特征，增长主要依赖监管灰色空间与大量营销投入，一旦监管收紧或用户兴趣下降，增长可能承压。监管层面也存在一定博弈，比如美国预测市场通常主张自身属于由商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）监管的事件合约交易，但州级监管机构持更谨慎态度，相关法律争议可能最终进入最高法院裁决。（BusinessInsider）

分析公司估计，美国目前拥有约32.8万枚比特币，价值230亿美元。

就在2026年2月6日，中国人民银行联合八大部门再次发布【银发〔2026〕42号】文件，市场已经有很多的解读了，本文想更多从RWA与现在链上市场现状结合起来做垂直的分析。

“正相关比特币”可能才是未来真正重要的方向，当利率上升时，比特币反而也会随之上涨。

诈骗,项目,投资,最新整理12个跑路或者即将跑路的资金盘骗局 金色财经,小心。

传统金融保证金规则的脆弱性，就是比特币的反脆弱性。

被不少人视为Solana 最坚定布道者的 Kyle Samani 宣布从 Multicoin 的日常管理中退居二线，称将把精力转向 AI、机器人、生命科学等新技术领域，同时仍保留个人加密投资。

现在很流行宣称“加密货币的非金融用例已经死了”。还有一些人声称“读-写-拥有”（read write own）已经失败。这些结论既误解了我们的核心论点，也误判了我们所处的阶段。

在本周，共有 18 家区块链初创公司完成融资，总金额达 2.789 亿美元。Anchorage Digital在一轮战略融资中筹集 1 亿美元，为本周最大一笔融资。

2026 年 2 月 6 日，中国人民银行等八部委发布了《关于进一步防范和处置虚拟货币等相关风险的通知》（银发〔2026〕42 号，以下简称“42 号文”）。

金色财经推出加密货币和区块链行业早报《金色早8点》2961期，为您提供最新、最快的数字货币和区块链行业新闻。