TradFi News | US CPI, PPI and CoreWeave Earnings to Test Markets as Fed Hike Bets Hit 80%
US inflation data and AI earnings will set the tone for markets in the week of November 9, after October’s strong jobs report strengthened bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. LSEG data shows fed funds futures pricing about an 80% probability of a December hike, with markets expecting two more 25 basis point hikes in this cycle.
The US added 165,000 jobs in October, and unemployment fell to 4.1%.
CPI and PPI Are the Week’s Key Data
October CPI: Tuesday, November 10, at 13:30 UTC (8:30 a.m. ET). ING expects headline and core CPI to rise 0.3% month over month, which it says would keep a December hike highly likely.October PPI: Friday, November 13, at the same time.
Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex, said markets will likely have almost fully priced in a 25 basis point hike by the December meeting. The exceptions would be an October CPI reading well below forecasts or a clearly weak November jobs report, due on December 4.
Four Fed Officials Are Scheduled to Speak
Fed Governors Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman and Michael Barr and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak or take part in discussions during the week. Markets will watch for signals on whether the Fed will raise rates again in December.
AI Earnings and Anthropic’s Roadshow
Three tech earnings reports land this week:
CoreWeave reports Q3 results after the US close on Tuesday, November 10.Nebius reports before the US open on Thursday, November 12.Cisco reports fiscal Q1 2027 results after the close on Thursday, November 12.
Together with Anthropic’s IPO roadshow, the reports form what market commentary calls a “double stress test” for AI assets. Anthropic could launch its formal roadshow as early as this week, although Reuters reported on November 6 that potential investors doubt the timeline can hold after the AI selloff.
Strategists Say a Bottom Is Not Yet Confirmed
Some strategists say last week’s decline isn’t enough to confirm a market bottom.
Bob Lang, chief options analyst at Explosive Options, noted that the CBOE put/call ratio rose to 1.2 on Thursday, twice its 0.6 average. He said similar readings need to repeat to confirm the selling has run its course.
Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, wants to see the VIX rise above 30 to confirm a true panic selloff. The index was around 24 on Friday. Woods said US stocks may already have hit their high for the year. He is bullish on Micron, Nvidia and the semiconductor sector but favors buying gradually rather than all at once.
US, Russia and Ukraine Hold Talks in Abu Dhabi
US, Russian and Ukrainian officials plan to hold working-level talks in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11. Ukrainian presidential chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov said he does not expect a breakthrough, but called the return to face-to-face meetings a step forward.
