美元连续第二个交易日小幅上涨，完全无视了市场定价所暗示的今年美联储将降息约三次的预期。期权市场显示，美元近期的看跌情绪有所缓解，所谓的前端风险逆转指标已降至近一个月来的最低负值水平。货币市场目前仍预期美联储年底前将降息约 64 个基点。部分策略师认为此预期过度，因三次降息可能超出数据支撑的合理范围，这将使市场面临美元反弹的风险。布朗兄弟哈里曼公司市场策略全球主管 Elias Haddad 表示：“美联储降息的预期似乎有些过度了，这为美元短期内的走强提供了调整空间。”他指出，经济增长态势良好，且通胀水平一直维持在高于美联储 2%目标的水平之上。（金十）

Several crypto analysts are pointing to the same conclusion: structural signals that previously marked the start of altseason may be triggering again. The discussion centers around a handful of charts shared by Crypto Patel, Bitcoinsensus, CryptoBusy, and Moustache, all highlighting long-term trend shifts in altcoin dominance and relative strength. source: https://www.ethnews.com/altseason-about-to-begin-these-charts-say-yes/

BFF shares experienced a decline in Milan trading following confirmation of an investigation by prosecutors into the specialist lender. Bloomberg posted on X, highlighting the impact of the news on the company's stock performance. The investigation's details remain undisclosed, but the announcement has raised concerns among investors, leading to a noticeable drop in share value. The market is closely monitoring the situation as further developments unfold.

According to recent on-chain data, whale transfers of XRP to Binance have climbed to their highest level since December, signaling renewed activity from large portfolios. The 30-day moving average of large transfers now stands at approximately 82. 1 million XRP, while price trades near $1. 47 source: https://www.ethnews.com/xrp-whale-transfers-jump-as-large-holders-re-engage/

KalshiData 在 X 平台发文表示，截至 2 月 14 日，Kalshi 本月已录得超过 3480 万笔交易，日均交易量约为 250 万笔。相比之下，Kalshi 在 1 月份录得约 5450 万笔交易，这意味着 2 月份的交易量已达到上月总额的 64%左右。若保持当前速度，Kalshi 月度交易量有望创下新纪录，或将超过 6960 万笔。

Sticky inflation and firm labor keep yields elevated, supporting the U. S. dollar index (DXY) despite rate-cut bets; analysts cite spillovers to yen and gold. source: https://coincu.com/news/u-s-dollar-index-steadies-as-sticky-inflation-caps-cut-bets/

Harvard University’s $56.9 billion endowment reduced its exposure to a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund while initiating its first investment in an ether-focused ETF during the fourth quarter. According to CoinDesk, Harvard Management Company disclosed in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that it purchased nearly 3.9 million shares of BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA), marking its first reported position tied to ether. At the same time, the endowment cut its stake in the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) by about 21%, selling roughly 1.5 million shares. Despite the reduction, IBIT remains Harvard’s largest publicly disclosed holding, valued at $265.8 million. The portfolio adjustment followed a decline in bitcoin’s price from an all-time high of around $125,000 in October to just below $90,000 at the end of the quarter. Andy Constan, founder and chief investment officer at Damped Spring Advisors, said the move may reflect market dynamics rather than a shift in sentiment. He suggested the sale could be linked to the unwinding of a strategy aimed at exploiting premiums in digital asset treasury companies, which had traded above the value of their bitcoin holdings as measured by multiple of net asset value, or mNAV.

ZeroLend will wind down after operating losses as TVL fell 98% to $6. 6 million and the ZERO token plunged. source: https://www.theblock.co/post/390119/zerolend-to-shut-down?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss

The imposition of tariffs on South African agricultural products by the United States is leading to increased wine prices in the country. Bloomberg posted on X, highlighting the economic repercussions of these tariffs on South Africa's wine industry. The tariffs, part of broader trade measures, have affected the cost structure for wine producers, resulting in higher prices for consumers. This development underscores the ongoing challenges faced by South African exporters in navigating international trade policies. The wine industry, a significant contributor to the country's economy, is experiencing pressure as it adapts to these new financial constraints. Stakeholders are closely monitoring the situation, assessing the potential long-term impacts on trade and economic growth.

U.S. President Donald Trump has criticized Maryland Governor Wes Moore for his delayed response to a pipeline rupture incident that occurred in Northwest Washington in January. According to Jin10, the rupture led to sewage spilling into the Potomac River. Despite the fact that the District of Columbia Water and Sewer Authority and the federal government have jurisdiction over the broken pipeline, Trump directed his criticism towards Moore.

在人工智能这场淘金热中，如果说英伟达在卖铲子，那么中国的基础设施建设者们（特高压、电力设备、绿色能源），掌握的是真正的水源。

如果把加密行业比作一副牙齿，那么上币（listing）在这些年的路径就像是一次“行业正畸”的过程。

桥水创始人达利欧近日发布重磅长文，正式宣告世界已进入“大周期”的第六阶段，即一个没有规则、充满混乱、强权即公理的时期。

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虽然没有涉及加密，但股民最关心的题材基本全覆盖了。

只有从传统智慧中汲取定力，在前沿浪潮中保持清醒，方能在这场重构中找到自己的位置。

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比特币的“春节效应”在2025年和2026年首次被打破。

不能用“黄金轮动”等宏观叙事来判断比特币是否见底，真正接近底部的信号只会出现在仓位出清和情绪极度悲观之中

Tomasz Stańczak卸任以太坊基金会联合执行主任，任职仅11个月。