STOCKS | Morgan Stanley Sees U.S. Stock Correction Nearing End as Three Headwinds Ease

U.S. stocks have faced pressure in recent weeks from concerns about AI capital spending, tighter liquidity and uncertainty over the midterm elections, with technology shares particularly affected. According to Sina Finance, citing Cailian Press, Morgan Stanley says the correction may be nearing its end as these headwinds gradually clear, potentially paving the way for a market rebound. The three major U.S. indexes fell last week, and the S&P 500 closed at 7,580.07 last Friday. The Nasdaq fell 5.3% in October, its worst monthly performance since March 2025; the S&P 500 also ended the month lower, while the Dow rose. Morgan Stanley maintains its year-end S&P 500 target of 8,000, more than 5% above the current level, but says the index could dip to 7,100–7,200 in the near term, slightly below its 200-day moving average. Strategist Michael Wilson said concerns about AI-related capital, financing costs, security and local opposition to data-center construction could intensify over the next three to four weeks before easing. He said the November 3 midterm elections could remove a source of uncertainty. Wilson wrote that elections typically weigh on markets initially but are often followed by strong returns over the next six to 12 months, while cautioning that conditions could remain volatile for days or weeks after voting. Morgan Stanley said tighter financial conditions, driven by Fed rate hikes, slower balance-sheet expansion and higher energy prices, make liquidity the biggest market risk and the final catalyst for a market bottom. Wilson noted that policymakers have raised rates only once since Fed Chair Kevin Warsh took office, while long-term Treasury yields have risen by more than 100 basis points since February. He said tighter conditions could slow economic growth and ease inflation pressure, while a sharper market decline could prompt the Fed to reconsider its policy stance and support stock prices.