Delphi Digital Analyzes Strategy's Bitcoin Acquisition Sustainability

Delphi Digital has released a report titled 'How Far Can Saylor Stretch It,' focusing on the sustainability of Strategy's current Bitcoin acquisition model. According to Foresight News, the report highlights that Strategy's early ability to consistently increase its Bitcoin holdings was largely due to MSTR's stock price remaining above the company's Bitcoin net asset value (mNAV), allowing for 'per-share Bitcoin holding growth' through stock issuance. However, MSTR's EV-based mNAV has now decreased to approximately 1.24 times, indicating a reduced profit margin for further financing through common stock issuance, nearing a breakeven point. The report also notes that Strategy has heavily relied on convertible bond financing in the past. While low-interest convertible bonds facilitated rapid expansion, the company still has approximately $8.2 billion in principal debt, with significant repayment periods beginning in September 2027. Currently, the real support for continued Bitcoin purchases comes from the STRC (Strategy Preferred) financing structure, which targets yield-oriented investors with an annualized 11.5% dividend yield paid monthly. This allows the company to continue buying Bitcoin without adding convertible bond maturity pressure. However, Delphi points out that this model incurs 'continuously growing fixed-income liabilities.' Each STRC financing increases Bitcoin reserves but also adds future dividend payment obligations. The report warns that if Bitcoin prices continue to rise and MSTR premiums remain high, the structure can operate effectively. However, if Bitcoin prices stagnate, dividend liabilities will accumulate, and common stock financing efficiency will decline. Strategy currently has $2.25 billion in cash reserves, sufficient to cover the $1 billion convertible bond repurchase pressure in 2027, but the larger debt wall in 2028 still needs addressing. Delphi also notes that the current authorized financing limit for STRC is $28.3 billion. Once this limit is reached and cannot be expanded, Strategy's ability to offset dividend dilution through 'continuous Bitcoin purchasing' may significantly weaken or even cease.