Arthur Hayes: Liquidity, rather than regulatory benefits, is the core factor driving Bitcoin's rise.

At Consensus 2026, Arthur Hayes stated that the crypto industry does not rely on regulation for development; the core factors influencing Bitcoin's price are only technological reliability and fiat currency liquidity, with the latter being the true driving force. He pointed out that from quantitative easing during the Obama era and fiscal stimulus during Trump's first term to the release of reverse repurchase liquidity through short-term debt replacing long-term debt during the Biden era, each round of monetary expansion has been highly correlated with Bitcoin's rise. Hayes believes that despite the Trump administration's push for several crypto regulatory bills, Bitcoin has still fallen by about 25% in the past 18 months, indicating that regulatory benefits do not directly drive price increases. He also stated that the Trump family's past experiences with debanking, asset freezes, and lawsuits may have made them more aware of Bitcoin's value as an asset free from state control. Hayes concluded that if Bitcoin ultimately evolves into a regular financial product on bank balance sheets, it will lose its original meaning.