Polymarket has added a new article titled "Can the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before Trump's visit to China?"

According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, Polymarket has launched a new prediction event: "Can the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before Trump's visit to China?" The probability of a permanent peace agreement is currently reported at 7%. Previously, in mid-April, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that China and the US were maintaining communication regarding Trump's visit to China, but there has been no recent progress. The settlement rules for this event are as follows: if the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before Trump's visit to China, the market will mark it as "Yes". Otherwise, the market will mark it as "No"; if, as of 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026, neither a qualified peace agreement has been reached nor Trump's visit to China has occurred, the market will mark it as "No". A permanent peace agreement refers to any agreement that clearly states that military hostilities between the US and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or an agreement that uses similar wording to clearly state that military hostilities between the US and Iran will permanently end. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or do not include a final agreement that permanently ends military hostilities between the US and Iran do not meet the criteria. A qualified agreement is considered reached if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The United States and Iran each sign or formally ratify a written agreement (e.g., a treaty or multi-article agreement) that meets the above criteria. 2. Both the U.S. and Iranian governments publicly and explicitly confirm that a qualified agreement has been reached. Negotiations, progress statements, or other final statements that do not constitute a qualified agreement are not recognized. In this market, a “visit” is defined as Trump’s actual entry into the land or sea territory of a listed country. Whether Trump entered the country’s airspace during this market period is irrelevant to the final outcome. The primary basis for determining whether a peace agreement has been reached is official information from the U.S. and Iranian governments, but consensus from credible reports may also be considered; the primary source for Trump’s visit to China is official information from the U.S. government and official information released by Trump himself or his verified social media accounts, but consensus from other credible reports will also be considered. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.