Polymarket's probability of a permanent peace agreement between the US and Iran by April 30th is only 4%, and the market has fallen 7% in the last 24 hours.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of a permanent peace agreement between the US and Iran by April 30th on Polymarket is only 4%, down 7% in the last 24 hours. The total trading volume of contracts for this event has exceeded $54 million. The contract rules state that if Iran and the US reach a permanent peace agreement by the specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the market will mark it as "yes"; otherwise, it will mark it as "no." A permanent peace agreement is any agreement that explicitly states that military hostilities between the US and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses similar wording to explicitly state that military hostilities between the US and Iran will permanently end. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or do not contain a final agreement that permanently ends military hostilities between the US and Iran (e.g., a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026) do not qualify. The market's primary source of information is official information from the US and Iranian governments; however, other credible reports can also be consulted. US President Trump previously stated that he wouldn't bother going to Pakistan just to get a worthless deal from Iran. Odaily Seer, the prediction channel, continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.