Analysis: Bitcoin's halving cycle is halfway through, but its gains have lagged behind historical levels; increased asset maturity is suppressing volatility and returns.

Bitcoin is currently at the midpoint of its current halving cycle (approximately 50.01%), with the next halving expected to occur on April 12, 2028. This cycle (Epoch 5) began in April 2024, with a halving triggered every 210,000 blocks, reducing the miner block reward to the current 3.125 BTC, resulting in an average daily increase of approximately 450 BTC. Data shows that Bitcoin has risen by approximately 15% since the 2024 halving, significantly weaker than the gains during the same period in previous cycles, continuing the trend of diminishing returns. Previously, the price reached a high of approximately $126,000 in October 2025, before falling back to around $60,000. Analysts believe this change is mainly due to Bitcoin gradually entering a mature asset stage: as market capitalization expands and institutional participation increases, the funds required to drive significant price increases increase significantly, while volatility continues to decline, leading to a more level price trend. The current total supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million, with approximately 20 million already mined. The remaining 1 million are expected to be released gradually over the next 114 years, and this scarcity mechanism continues to strengthen its long-term value. (CoinDesk)