The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is considering whether to block CME Group Inc.’s bid to launch a round-the-clock oil contract. In a move that could heighten tensions between CME and its regulator, according to Bloomberg, the agency is weighing whether to prevent the contract from going forward.

Anthropic’s newest AI model, Claude Fable 5, predicts Spain will beat France in the 2026 World Cup final on July 19, giving its own pick an 18% chance of success. According to BeInCrypto, the model cites the expanded 48-team format, heat, altitude and travel across the US, Canada and Mexico, arguing squad depth and possession-heavy systems matter more over eight wins. Fable 5’s probability table puts Spain at 18%, France 14%, Argentina 11%, England 10%, Brazil 8% and Portugal 7%. Goldman Sachs’ model led by Jan Hatzius ranks Spain at 26% vs France 19%, while Polymarket and Kalshi price Spain around 17% with France close behind.

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said the United States has pledged not to launch a war or use threats during ongoing negotiations over a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the U.S. According to Odaily, Iranian media reported on the 12th that Araghchi made the remarks during a television program that evening. Araghchi said the U.S. commitment includes refraining from threatening tactics, and that both sides respect each other’s sovereignty and do not interfere in each other’s internal affairs.

Former SEC Chair and former CFTC Chair Gary Gensler said in an amicus brief filed with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit that the Dodd-Frank Act does not grant the CFTC authority to regulate sports betting. According to Odaily, his position counters arguments from current CFTC Chair Michael Selig and prediction market platform Kalshi, which contend that sports-related event contracts fall under federal oversight rather than state gambling regulation. Gensler said that if Dodd-Frank had removed states’ authority over sports betting, it would have been widely understood at the time, but he said no such interpretation prevailed. He served as CFTC chair from 2009 to 2014 and oversaw implementation of Dodd-Frank-related rules. The brief relates to Kalshi’s lawsuit involving Ohio. Ohio gambling regulators ordered Kalshi to stop offering sports-related event contracts to state residents, after which Kalshi sued the state. A court has denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction. The CFTC has supported Kalshi, arguing that Ohio exceeded its authority. Over the past year, the CFTC has sought to expand its regulatory claims over prediction markets and has sued multiple states to establish jurisdiction. The agency also proposed broader prediction market rules this week that generally continue to support sports-related contracts, while proposing stricter limits on contracts tied to events such as terrorist attacks, assassinations, and war.

SpaceX’s long-term value lies not only in its three current businesses, but also in the emerging industries it may initiate.

> Special Commentary by Feixiaohao: Fang Hongjin, Co-Chairman of the Hong Kong Blockchain Association

Jinse Finance launches the "Jinse Web3.0 Daily," providing you with the latest and fastest news on AI, DeFi, DAO, NFT, and the metaverse industry.

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