According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 16.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 83.9%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 45.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 47.7%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 6.9%.

Meta acquired Butterfly Effect, the company that develops the AI ​​app Manus, for billions of dollars. This is Meta's third-largest acquisition since its inception, after WhatsApp and ScaleAI. We understand that prior to the acquisition, Manus was raising funds in a new round at a valuation of $2 billion. "It was so fast I even doubted if it was a fake offer," said Liu Yuan, partner at ZhenFund and angel investor in Butterfly Effect. The acquisition negotiations were completed in an extremely short time, lasting only about ten days.

A growing number of wealthy Americans are establishing family offices. These institutions offer a full range of services to the ultra-rich, including wealth management and personal affairs. They are large and operate discreetly, and their influence on Wall Street and the US economy as a whole is steadily increasing. Deloitte data shows that US family offices currently manage approximately $5.5 trillion in wealth, a 67% increase from five years ago; this figure is projected to reach $6.9 trillion this year and surpass $9 trillion by 2030. Deloitte also predicts that in the coming years, the assets managed by family offices will exceed those of hedge funds. Deloitte data shows that there are currently over 8,000 single-family offices globally, an increase of about one-third from 6,130 in 2019, and this number is expected to exceed 10,000 by 2030. Major banks and other financial institutions are eager to meet the diverse needs of family offices, while entrepreneurs and investment managers are vying for a share of the enormous wealth held by these wealthy families.

Cicely LaMothe, Deputy Director of the Corporate Finance Division at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), has announced her retirement. She played a crucial role in crypto regulation over the past year, including issuing clarifications stating that Memecoin is not a security and outlining the SEC's regulatory stance on staking. LaMothe joined the SEC in 2002 and was involved in key work such as drafting registration and filing policies. Her departure comes in the second year of the SEC's more favorable approach to the crypto industry. During this period, the SEC approved listing standards for some crypto-asset-related ETFs, dropped several enforcement cases against prominent crypto companies, and advanced Project Crypto to update the regulatory framework for digital assets. In addition, the SEC confirmed that Nekia Hackworth Jones, Deputy Director of Enforcement for the Southeast, completed her term at the end of December.

US President Donald Trump said he is considering suing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for "incompetence." Trump stated that his preferred candidate for Fed chairman "has not changed" and expects to announce the new Fed chairman in January.

Securitize announced on the X platform that BlackRock's BUIDL has become the first tokenized government bond project to have paid out a total of $100 million in dividends.

Hyperliquid Labs is about to conduct its first HYPE token distribution, with approximately 1.2 million HYPE tokens (worth about $31.2 million) already unstaking and to be distributed to team members on January 6th. HYPE officially launched via community airdrop in November 2024. Approximately 23.8% of the total supply is planned to be reserved for core contributors, and these tokens will be unlocked gradually. The total supply of HYPE is capped at 1 billion tokens. Currently, there are approximately 238.4 million HYPE tokens in circulation. HYPE is currently trading at approximately $26, with a market capitalization of $6.2 billion and a fully diluted market capitalization of $25.1 billion. Over 61% of HYPE tokens remain locked.

As 2025 draws to a close, the cryptocurrency market has almost entirely erased its gains for the year. Although Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,000 on October 6th, the market subsequently plummeted, with the total market capitalization of digital assets evaporating by approximately $1 trillion over the past few months. The market turning point came in mid-October when Trump announced an escalation of the tariff war, resulting in a record $19 billion in liquidations within 24 hours. Ethereum subsequently fell by about 40% in the following month, and Eric Trump's crypto company also saw a significant drop in market capitalization in December. Analysts point out that while the Trump administration's overall stance is "pro-crypto," the tariff conflict, the tightening macroeconomic environment, and the high-leverage cleansing had a greater impact on the market. In November, Bitcoin briefly fell below $81,000, marking its largest monthly drop since 2021, and is currently fluctuating around $90,000. Industry insiders warn that the market may be entering a new "crypto winter," but some institutions believe this is more like a typical four-year Bitcoin cycle correction. Both BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that institutional funds continue to flow in over the long term, and crypto assets are moving from the 'grey area' into the mainstream financial system.

A South Korean Supreme Court has sentenced an employee of a cryptocurrency exchange to four years in prison and banned him from working in the financial industry for four years for accepting Bitcoin from North Korea in an attempt to recruit South Korean military officers. The court found that North Korean hackers paid the exchange employee approximately $487,000 in Bitcoin to recruit active-duty South Korean officers; the army captain involved received approximately $33,500 in Bitcoin. The judge noted that the defendants were aware their actions involved a hostile nation, that their actions could endanger national security, and that they were motivated by personal financial gain. The captain had previously been sentenced to 10 years in prison and fined $35,000 for violating the Military Secrets Protection Act, while the exchange employee was convicted of violating the National Security Act. The case revealed that the individuals involved contacted officers through Telegram chat rooms, providing them with hidden cameras disguised as watches and USB hacking devices in an attempt to steal login information from the ROK-US Joint Command and Control System.

Ethereum’s staking dynamics have shifted decisively, with validator entries overtaking exits for the first time in six months, signaling renewed confidence across the network. Entry Queue Surges, Exits Fade The chart shows a clear crossover: the entry queue (blue) has accelerated sharply, while the exit queue (red) continues to trend lower. source: https://www.ethnews.com/ethereum-validator-demand-turns-bullish-as-entry-queue-overtakes-exits/

Japan is moving forward with a major overhaul of its crypto taxation framework, proposing a flat 20% tax on profits from digital assets under its 2026 tax reform plan. While this marks a significant reduction from the current 55% rate, the new policy currently applies only to a limited set of “specified” crypto assets, leaving many to wonder what that means.

OpenAI is facing lawsuits after a 16-year-old died by suicide, with claims that ChatGPT repeatedly discussed hanging and may have worsened his distress. The company is now introducing stronger teen protections, including safety alerts, age-specific guidance, and parental controls, to prevent harm and ensure younger users have safer, age-appropriate interactions.

The Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) has partnered with LayerZero, a leading interoperability protocol, to enable native connectivity between Stellar and more than 150 blockchain networks. The integration allows assets—most notably USDC and other stablecoins—to move seamlessly across chains without relying on centralized bridges or intermediaries.

Hackers took control of Rainbow Six Siege, giving players billions of in-game credits and rare items, forcing Ubisoft to shut down the servers. The company is rolling back the affected accounts while allowing players to keep any items they used, and is gradually reopening the game.

Bitmine has made one of the most aggressive treasury moves in recent crypto history, committing hundreds of millions of dollars to Ethereum while simultaneously embracing staking as a long-term income strategy.

Mirae Asset Group is in talks to buy South Korea’s fourth-largest crypto exchange, Korbit, in a deal worth about 100 to 140 billion won ($70–$100 million).

Over $35 million in cryptocurrency stolen from LastPass users since 2022 has been traced to Russian cybercriminals using weak master passwords and laundering funds through mixers and Russian exchanges. TRM Labs found the thefts continued for years, showing that even encrypted vaults can be compromised if security practices are weak.

Coinbase has finally made its first arrest of one of the masterminds behind the exchange's customer data breach that exposed nearly 70,000 user accounts.

Global online interest in cryptocurrencies has fallen to its lowest levels as we approach the new year, with Google search data signaling a sharp pullback in retail attention as the market heads into 2026.

The Atlas memecoin, themed around US Vice President JD Vance’s pet dog, has nearly half of its supply controlled by 68 wallets showing signs of coordinated buying and potential insider activity. The token was heavily promoted by the influencer Whale Insider, raising concerns that retail investors could be at risk from price manipulation.