Mark Spitznagel, founder and chief investment officer of the “Black Swan Fund” Universa Investments, says the multi-year rally in U.S. stocks is far from over—at least for now. In a recent letter to investors, Spitznagel wrote that the market will continue in the “Goldilocks zone—declining inflation and interest rates, a slowing but not excessive economic slowdown, and a shift to market frenzy—with the stock market continuing to climb and ending in a surge.” However, he added that “the biggest bubble in human history” is now in its final stages. Spitznagel’s hedge fund, which has been operating for nearly two decades, focuses on tail risk hedging, protecting investors’ portfolios from the next major crash. He says that as long as the economy remains resilient, the stock market will continue to rise—a view he has maintained since late 2022. In an interview, he stated that market frenzy could push the S&P 500 to 8,000 points or even higher—followed by a sharp reversal. A worrying aspect is that if the Federal Reserve maintains current interest rates for an extended period, businesses will begin to struggle to raise capital. Spitznagel stated that while the economy appears resilient, monetary policy exhibits a lag effect, and the Federal Reserve's excessive focus on lagging indicators like inflation has become outdated. "The Fed is currently holding back, and as the economy gradually deteriorates, the market will anticipate more easing measures," he said. In this context, the stock market will climb on expectations of further rate cuts, followed by a rapid decline when the economy slows. "At some point, the Fed will be powerless to reverse the situation, exactly as happened in 2007 and 2008."

Billionaire tech investor Peter Thiel and his Founders Fund have completely divested from ETHZilla, as indicated by a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Bloomberg posted on X, highlighting the strategic move by Thiel's investment firm. The decision marks a significant shift in the fund's investment strategy, reflecting broader trends in the tech investment landscape. The exit from ETHZilla underscores the dynamic nature of venture capital investments and the evolving priorities of major investors like Thiel.

Kalshi is looking to have Nevada’s lawsuit heard in federal court, again asserting it is subject only to federal commodity exchange laws. source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/nevada-sues-kalshi-after-prediction-market-loses-bid-to-stop-state-action?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound

Filings show Intesa Sanpaolo put ~$96M into IBIT and used MSTR puts to hedge. Intesa Sanpaolo spot Bitcoin ETF, MicroStrategy put options, MiCA regulation source: https://coincu.com/news/bitcoin-draws-flows-as-intesa-reveals-spot-etf-stake/

On Feb 18, 2026, 06:14 AM(UTC). According to Binance Market Data, Ethereum has crossed the 2,000 USDT benchmark and is now trading at 2,000.170044 USDT, with a narrowed 1.04% increase in 24 hours.

Investor Huang Licheng is experiencing substantial financial losses due to high-leverage trading positions. According to ChainCatcher, despite these setbacks, Huang continues to increase leverage and open new positions. His current unrealized losses exceed $27.8 million. Huang's current long positions include $13.08 million in ETH with 25x leverage, $1.69 million in BTC with 40x leverage, $1.29 million in HYPE with 10x leverage, and $38,000 in VVV with 3x leverage.

Multiple technical, onchain and exchange-traded product data points suggest $1. 12 was the generational bottom for XRP. Is it time for a trend reversal? source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/4-data-points-suggest-xrp-price-bottomed-at-dollar1-12-are-bulls-ready-to-take-over?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound

DeFi lending protocol Moonwell suffered approximately $1.78 million in bad debt due to an oracle misconfiguration. After enabling Chainlink's OEV wrapper contract via governance proposal MIP-X43 on February 15th, Moonwell experienced a serious misconfiguration of its cbETH price oracle, which at one point valued the currency at only $1. On-chain trading bots and liquidators acted swiftly, seizing cbETH collateral by repaying approximately $1 of debt. This misconfiguration resulted in the liquidation of 1096.317 cbETH, wiping out the vast majority of collateral for many borrowers and leaving the protocol with a significant amount of bad debt. The Moonwell team immediately reduced the cbETH borrowing and supply caps to 0.01 after discovering the issue to limit further losses, but the official team has declined to comment further on the source of the error or details of the vulnerability.

On February 18th local time, in the first round of voting in the House of Representatives' prime ministerial nomination election in Japan, Liberal Democratic Party President Sanae Takaichi won with a majority of votes, securing victory. The House of Councillors election will follow. Because the Japanese Constitution stipulates that the House of Representatives election results have "priority," it is certain that Sanae Takaichi will be elected Prime Minister of Japan. (CCTV)

MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor has officially confirmed the arrival of a new "crypto winter. ". source: https://u.today/saylor-we-are-in-crypto-winter

A little over a year ago, becoming a digital asset vault seemed like an easy decision for many companies looking to boost their stock prices.

The pace of AI progress is astonishing, far exceeding most people's imagination, and may change society in a more profound way than the pandemic.

On platforms like Polymarket, most people (including myself in the past) typically price parlays by simply multiplying the probabilities of each event together.

On February 18, 2026, Polymarket announced that starting that day, the platform would pilot a market order fee in the sports market. The first wave of events covered were NCAA basketball and Italian Serie A leagues, with plans to gradually expand to all sports events in the future.

Happy Lunar New Year of the Year of the Horse! Wishing everyone: May you gallop forward with boundless success, and enjoy good health and steady wealth!

Jinse Finance launches its cryptocurrency and blockchain industry daily news bulletin, "Jinse 8 AM," issue 2971, providing you with the latest and fastest news on the digital currency and blockchain industry.

OpenClaw community rules: No discussion of finance or crypto. This is perhaps the most incisive criticism of Web3, and also the most sincere advice.

The secret to wealth for each generation is written in every new consensus reached by that generation.

The world order is changing. Bitcoin is a means of combating systemic instability stemming from the fact that the rules of the game are being rewritten.

In the gold rush of artificial intelligence, if Nvidia is selling shovels, then China's infrastructure builders (ultra-high voltage power transmission, power equipment, green energy) are controlling the real water source.