Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, said the real "show" was in the summary of economic forecasts. They were merely speculating on how oil prices would change, but projected inflation to rise by 0.3 percentage points without any substantial drag on growth. This forecast might be overly optimistic. It's similar to their past overestimation of the impact of tariffs on inflation while underestimating their drag on economic growth. 2026 could be like the past two years, with a shock that ultimately caught them off guard, leading to a rate cut in September. (Jinshi)

The Federal Reserve has updated its economic forecasts, increasing expectations for GDP growth. According to ChainCatcher, the central bank has also raised its projections for PCE and core PCE inflation for this year and next. Additionally, the unemployment rate forecast for next year has been adjusted upward, along with the long-term federal funds rate expectations.

The Federal Reserve's economic projections reveal that most participants of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) perceive significant uncertainty surrounding actual GDP growth. According to ChainCatcher, the prevailing sentiment among these participants is that the risks are skewed towards the downside. This outlook reflects concerns about the potential challenges facing the U.S. economy, as indicated by the latest data from the Federal Reserve's economic forecast.

The Bank of Canada Governor, Tiff Macklem, stated that it is too early to assess the impact of the Middle East conflict on Canada's economic growth. According to RTHK, Macklem noted that the risk of rising energy costs spreading to broader prices remains under control. He emphasized that if energy prices show signs of causing sustained inflation, the Bank of Canada may raise interest rates, ensuring that the effects of high energy prices do not lead to persistent inflation. Macklem mentioned that the duration of the energy price increase cannot be measured in weeks, but the central bank still has time to evaluate the situation. The bank anticipates that a significant rise in gasoline prices will drive overall inflation higher in the coming months. Economic growth in the short term may be weaker than the bank's January forecast, but uncertainty remains high. Macklem highlighted the dilemma faced by the central bank, as weak economic growth coexists with rising inflation. Raising interest rates to curb inflation could further weaken the economy, while lowering rates to support growth risks pushing inflation beyond the target. In its latest meeting, the Bank of Canada maintained the interest rate at 2.25%, as expected. The market currently anticipates that the central bank will keep rates unchanged at its next meeting on April 29.

Bloomberg posted on X, questioning whether consumers respond differently to various types of stock market weaknesses. The discussion involves experts Jonathan Levin, John Leer, and Allison Schrager, who delve into the nuances of consumer behavior in relation to market fluctuations. The conversation aims to understand the impact of different market conditions on consumer confidence and spending patterns, highlighting the complexity of economic interactions.

The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has announced a significant advancement in the field of uranium purification. According to Jin10, the United States has successfully developed a new process for producing purified enriched uranium. This development marks a milestone in the country's nuclear capabilities, potentially impacting both energy production and national security strategies. The NNSA's achievement underscores ongoing efforts to enhance nuclear technology and maintain a competitive edge in the global arena.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and projected rising inflation, stable unemployment, and only one rate cut this year. Officials made these projections as they assessed the economic risks posed by the ongoing wars between the US and Israel with Iran. The new projections indicate that the Fed will cut rates by only 0.25 percentage points by the end of the year, without specifying a timeframe. This view aligns with previous projections and contradicts President Trump's calls for significant rate cuts. The Fed statement said, "The impact of the evolving situation in the Middle East on the US economy remains unclear." The statement also noted that the unemployment rate is currently stable. The new interest rate and economic projections suggest that the Fed has largely ruled out the impact of the oil crisis, and policymakers still expect rate cuts this year and project inflation to reach 2.2% by the end of 2027, close to the central bank's 2% target. Notably, no policymakers believe a further rate hike is needed by the end of this year, although one official projects one rate hike by 2027. (Jinshi)

Inflation expectations might seem stable, according to economist Allison Schrager. Bloomberg posted on X, highlighting Schrager's insights on the potential volatility of these expectations. Despite appearing well-anchored, Schrager suggests that underlying factors could lead to unexpected shifts. Her analysis points to the importance of monitoring economic indicators closely to anticipate changes in inflation trends. This perspective adds a layer of complexity to the current economic outlook, urging stakeholders to remain vigilant in their assessments.

Bloomberg posted on X, questioning whether inaction can be considered an active policy decision or if it serves as a form of plausible deniability. The discussion invites readers to consider the implications of choosing not to act in various policy contexts. This topic is particularly relevant in today's complex political and economic landscape, where decisions—or the lack thereof—can have significant consequences. The conversation encourages a deeper examination of the motivations and outcomes associated with policy inaction.

According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, the probability of Powell mentioning "inflation" more than 40 times at the March (2:30 AM) press conference on Polymarket is currently reported as 80%. Additionally, the probability of mentioning "Gold/Oil" is currently reported as 93%, and the probability of mentioning "Iran" as 62%. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

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