According to CME FedWatch data, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates at all by the end of 2026 stands at 5.4%. According to BlockBeats, there is a 21.1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut, a 32.5% chance of a 50 basis point reduction, a 25.9% likelihood of a 75 basis point cut, an 11.7% probability of a 100 basis point decrease, and a 3% chance of a 125 basis point reduction. Additionally, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's next meeting in March is 23.2%.

Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, has outlined nine major narratives driving the future of crypto, which could shape the next bull market cycle. These narratives focus on key developments like AI, tokenization, institutional adoption, and more. Here's a summary of the narratives he's tracking:Revenue-Generating Projects: Blockchain is set to scale significantly, with revenue-generating projects poised to be rewarded in the next cycle.AiFi (AI + Crypto): AI agents will increasingly use crypto, stablecoins, and DeFi, offering enormous growth potential.Fading Fiat: With fiat currencies losing value, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are seen as an alternative store of value.Institutional Adoption: The next decade will witness significant institutional crypto adoption, measured in trillions.Regulatory Progress: Positive regulations will drive mainstream adoption, with key regulations like the Genius Act coming into effect in 2027.Stablecoin Supercycle: Stablecoins will become the backbone of global payments, growing from $300 billion to trillions in the coming years.Tokenization: Tokenizing traditional assets (equities, bonds, real estate) will revolutionize the market, where we've barely scratched the surface.DeFi Resurgence: As the world becomes tokenized, DeFi will grow exponentially as protocols improve with clearer regulations.Ethereum's Steve Jobs Moment: Vitalik Buterin's return to Ethereum marks a key turning point, similar to Steve Jobs’ return to Apple.While Hougan acknowledges that not all of these narratives may work out, he remains optimistic about the future, highlighting a promising few years ahead for crypto.

South Korean court sentences crypto CEO to three years for price manipulation, marking the first enforcement of the country’s Virtual Asset User Protection Act. source: https://catenaa.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/south-korean-crypto-ceo-sentenced-to-three-years-for-market-manipulation/

ERC-8004 is a newly introduced Ethereum standard designed to establish a permission model for on-chain activities. According to NS3.AI, this standard does not alter asset definitions or transaction mechanics but instead transforms authorization into a describable, constrainable, and manageable object within the blockchain system. This framework aims to enhance the control and validation of on-chain actions by smart contracts and agents.

The White House has scheduled a high-stakes, staff-level meeting for Tuesday, February 10, 2026, aimed at resolving a regulatory deadlock between major U. S. banks and the cryptocurrency industry over stablecoin yield and reward mechanisms source: https://www.ethnews.com/white-house-convenes-banks-and-crypto-industry-over-stablecoin-yield-dispute/

A new round of cryptocurrency discussions is set to take place at the White House next Tuesday, focusing on stablecoin yield issues. According to Odaily, this meeting marks the second in a series and will be held at the staff level, without the presence of company CEOs. However, senior policy personnel from several banks will attend for the first time. Sources indicate that major banks such as Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo have received invitations, with Citibank, PNC Bank, and U.S. Bank also likely to participate. Banking industry representatives will include the Bank Policy Institute, the American Bankers Association, and the Independent Community Bankers of America. The banking sector aims to limit cryptocurrency companies from paying interest to stablecoin holders, fearing that high-yield accounts could lead to deposit outflows and affect loan funding. Cryptocurrency firms argue that such restrictions would stifle competition and innovation. Scott Besant stated this week that deposit volatility is undesirable and efforts will be made to prevent stablecoin yield payments from causing deposit instability. This meeting is related to the advancement of the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act (CLARITY Act). Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the White House Cryptocurrency Committee, has urged all parties to reach a consensus by the end of the month.

Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett revealed that the White House will hold a new round of cryptocurrency meetings next Tuesday, focusing on stablecoin yields. This is the second in a series of meetings, still at the staff level, and will not invite CEOs, but senior policymakers from several banks will attend for the first time. Sources say that major banks such as Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo have received invitations, and Citigroup, PNC Bank, and U.S. Bancorp may also participate; participating banking organizations include the Banking Policy Institute, the American Bankers Association, and the Independent Community Bankers Association. The report states that banks want to restrict crypto companies from paying interest to stablecoin holders, fearing that high-yield accounts will attract deposit outflows and affect loan availability. Crypto companies, however, believe this proposal will weaken competition and stifle innovation. Scott Bessant stated this week that deposit volatility is undesirable and that efforts will be made to avoid stablecoin yield payments causing deposit instability. This meeting is related to the progress of the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act (CLARITY Act). Patrick Witt, executive director of the White House Cryptocurrency Council, has urged all parties to reach a consensus by the end of this month.

A few bearish trends across the board have affected Bitcoin's price lately. source: https://ambcrypto.com/explainer-why-is-bitcoin-under-so-much-sell-pressure-right-now/

Scott Melker, host of The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast, posted on X that Galaxy Digital has authorized a $200 million share buyback program. The buyback will occur over the next 12 months, aiming to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

투손에서 발생한 낸시 거스리의 실종 사건은 혈흔과 비트코인으로 몸값을 요구한 폭력적인 납치 사건으로 밝혀졌습니다. source: https://ko.spaziocrypto.com/amhohwa/geoseuri-nabci-biteukoinyi-piwa-momgabs/

Kyle Samani, considered by many to be one of Solana's most steadfast evangelists, announced that he will step down from the day-to-day management of Multicoin, stating that he will focus his efforts on emerging technologies such as AI, robotics, and life sciences, while retaining his personal crypto investments.

There's a current trend of claiming that "non-financial use cases for cryptocurrency are dead." Some even assert that "read-write-own" has failed. These conclusions misunderstand our core argument and misjudge the stage we're in.

This week, 18 blockchain startups completed funding rounds, raising a total of $278.9 million. Anchorage Digital raised $100 million in a strategic funding round, the largest single funding round this week.

On February 6, 2026, the People's Bank of China and eight other ministries issued the "Notice on Further Preventing and Handling Risks Related to Virtual Currency" (Yinfa [2026] No. 42, hereinafter referred to as "Document No. 42").

Jinse Finance launches its daily cryptocurrency and blockchain news bulletin, "Jinse at 8 AM," issue 2961, providing you with the latest and fastest news on the digital currency and blockchain industry.

Bithumb, a South Korean exchange, has an outrageous operational ceiling: Bithumb issued 620,000 BTC out of thin air. (Golden Finance) Someone almost made a free $130 million profit.

2026 will be the year we decide that mainstream adoption at the expense of core values ​​is not worthwhile. Decentralization that is "good enough" is not good enough. Users deserve something better than trusting infrastructure providers to access "trustless" networks.

While regulatory oversight of virtual currencies and stablecoins has been further strengthened, a narrow compliance loophole seems to have been left open for RWA businesses, which were recently subject to strict regulatory scrutiny.

This game is far from over—the next wave of price increases may not be driven by optimism, but by the essential need to "have to buy."

Barclays believes that the sharp decline in the software industry is having a significant impact on its business development companies, which hold a high percentage of investment exposure (20%).