Institutional demand for Bitcoin has flipped net supply negative for the first time since early November, signaling a potential inflection point as BTC searches for a market bottom.Bitcoin’s institutional bid is showing early signs of recovery, with new data indicating that large buyers are once again absorbing more BTC than miners are producing — a dynamic that historically precedes periods of price stabilization or recovery.Key TakeawaysInstitutional Bitcoin demand is now 13% higher than daily mined supply, marking the first net supply reduction since early November.Corporate and fund-level buying has outpaced miner issuance for three consecutive days.The shift comes despite over $600 million in spot Bitcoin ETF outflows recorded in just two days.Institutions Resume Net Bitcoin AccumulationAccording to fresh data from quantitative crypto fund Capriole Investments, institutional buyers have reclaimed dominance over Bitcoin’s daily supply dynamics. Over the past three days, institutional purchases have exceeded newly mined BTC, effectively reducing circulating supply on a rolling basis.This marks the first sustained period of institution-led supply absorption in over six weeks, following a prolonged drawdown that saw Bitcoin retreat more than 30% from its October all-time high near $126,000 to recent lows around $80,500.While the current level of demand remains well below peak bull-market intensity, the reversal itself is notable. Capriole data shows institutional buying currently running 13% above daily miner issuance, a key on-chain threshold closely watched by long-term investors.Corporate Treasuries Re-Enter the PictureThe renewed accumulation trend has reignited attention on corporate Bitcoin treasuries, particularly Strategy, the world’s largest publicly listed BTC holder. Despite significant declines in both Bitcoin’s price and Strategy’s equity valuation, the firm has continued adding to its BTC reserves.Capriole founder Charles Edwards previously noted that the period between October’s highs and November’s lows represented intense stress across the corporate Bitcoin landscape. His latest analysis points to a “broken corporate flywheel,” citing record discounts to net asset value (NAV) among BTC-holding companies and rising leverage across the sector.Even so, Edwards emphasized that Bitcoin’s network fundamentals remain attractive, suggesting that institutional accumulation may be laying groundwork for longer-term recovery — albeit with near-term price volatility still unresolved.ETF Outflows Clash With Strategic AccumulationThe return of institutional buying comes amid heavy outflows from U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. Data from Farside Investors shows net ETF redemptions totaling $635 million since Monday, underscoring persistent short-term caution among traditional market participants.On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant described the current environment as a “market in transition,” where short-term pessimism contrasts sharply with strategic accumulation by large, conviction-driven players.“This divergence between institutional outflows and the conviction of major players underscores that Bitcoin oscillates between immediate stress and long-term expectations of appreciation,” CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain wrote in a recent analysis.Why This Matters for Bitcoin’s Price OutlookHistorically, periods where institutional demand exceeds miner supply have coincided with:Reduced sell pressure from minersStabilization after major drawdownsThe early stages of accumulation phasesWhile ETF flows suggest caution remains widespread, the return of net institutional supply absorption introduces a critical counterbalance to bearish sentiment. Whether this dynamic evolves into a sustained recovery will depend on macro conditions, liquidity trends, and whether institutional demand continues to build beyond current levels.For now, Bitcoin appears to be entering a high-stakes equilibrium — caught between near-term stress and long-term accumulation.
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