Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Influenced by Political and Economic Factors

According to BlockBeats, Markus Thielen, Head of Research at 10x Research, has indicated that while Bitcoin's four-year cycle persists, its primary drivers have shifted from halving events to political factors, liquidity conditions, and election cycles. Bitcoin reached historical peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. However, this year, despite the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts, Bitcoin has not regained its strong upward momentum. This is attributed to institutional investors becoming the dominant force in the crypto market, exercising more caution in their decision-making. With the Federal Reserve's policy signals remaining uncertain and overall liquidity tightening, the pace of capital entering the market has noticeably slowed, weakening the momentum needed for sustained price breakthroughs. Until there is a significant improvement in liquidity, Bitcoin is more likely to experience range-bound fluctuations and sideways consolidation rather than quickly entering a new parabolic upward trend.