According to Cointelegraph, XRP investors are currently experiencing substantial profits, with daily gains exceeding $68 million. This trend mirrors the market behavior observed before the 2017 peak, raising concerns about potential sell-offs. Over 70% of XRP's realized market cap has developed since late 2024, indicating a market heavily weighted towards newer holders. This concentration makes the market susceptible to sharp declines if selling pressure continues.
XRP traders who invested before the November 2024 rally, when the token was priced below $0.50, are now seeing profits soar by over 300%. This group is driving the current profit-taking activity, reminiscent of the 2017 cycle when XRP's price surged from $0.005 to over $2.50 within a year. The subsequent profit-taking led to a significant market downturn. If this pattern repeats, XRP could face further corrections in the coming months.
The market's top-heavy structure is further highlighted by the fact that over 70% of XRP's realized market cap has formed between late 2024 and early 2025. This situation creates a vulnerability to sharp sell-offs during periods of volatility. Additionally, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for holders of 3 to 6 months has been declining, while other groups have shown signs of recovery or stabilization since April.
As of June 21, the average purchase price for the 3 to 6-month cohort was $2.28, while the 6 to 12-month group bought at an average of $1.35. With XRP trading near $2.14, newer holders are barely breaking even, and the 6 to 12-month cohort faces a potential 35% downside before reaching their breakeven point. This scenario suggests a possible decline toward the $1.50 to $1.60 range, with a retest of the $1.35 level likely if selling pressure persists.
The realized price is approaching a floor at $1.30, a downside target indicated by XRP's descending triangle pattern, which is typically seen as a bearish reversal during an uptrend. However, a strong rebound from the 50-week exponential moving average could negate this bearish outlook, potentially setting the stage for XRP to climb toward $3 or higher. Readers are advised to conduct their own research before making investment decisions, as trading involves inherent risks.
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