Singapore OCBC Bank Predicts US Federal Fund Rate Cuts

According to Odaily, Singapore's OCBC Bank has indicated that while inflation has not been entirely eliminated, a 50 basis point rate cut is not typical. The bank believes that further reductions in the US federal funds rate from now on do not require an economic recession. Their primary forecast remains that the federal funds rate will be reduced by 25 basis points at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings in November and December, totaling a 125 basis point cut by 2025. The bank maintains a downward bias on the 2-year US Treasury yield, with the next levels to watch being 3.83% and then 3.70%. Regarding the 10-year US Treasury yield, OCBC Bank has noted that without a series of weak data, it is challenging for the real yield to break out of the 1.5-1.7% range. Currently, the 10-year US Treasury real yield has surpassed this range to 1.74%, and it may require a series of weak data to push it back into the aforementioned range.