The dollar rose 1.18% against the Japanese yen to 157.796, per Gate data.That move came in the same window the Bank of Japan lifted its benchmark borrowing cost to a 31-year high — a combination that runs against the standard relationship between rates and currencies.The dollar fell 0.07% against the offshore Chinese yuan to 6.6986.A Currency Falling on a Rate Increase Is the SignalHigher rates normally support a currency by raising the return on holding it. The yen weakening after a hike points to something other than rate differentials setting the price.Two explanations fit. The hike may have been fully priced — markets had 75% odds on it for weeks — in which case the delivery removes a reason to hold yen ahead of the event.The alternative is that the increase was read as insufficient against Japan's inflation and fiscal position. Japan's 10-year touched 3% this month for the first time in three decades, and its five-year hit a record.The level matters for crypto. The yen strengthened from beyond 160 in early September to the 150 zone as hedge funds closed short positions, and a reversal back toward 158 suggests that unwind has stalled or reversed.Carry trade positions funded in yen are what transmit Japanese policy into dollar assets. A weaker yen keeps that funding cheap, which is supportive for risk — the opposite of what a hike was expected to deliver.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had warned that a disorderly yen market could feed through to higher US rates.European Indices Fell Across the BoardThe Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 1.22% to 6,238.23, the FTSE 100 fell 1.03% to 10,686.7 and the German DAX 40 lost 0.94% to 25,396.2.Uniform weakness across three indices with different sector compositions describes a macro driver rather than a sectoral one.The ECB raised its main refinancing rate to 2.65% the previous week while lifting its 2027 and 2028 inflation outlook, with Deutsche Bank's Mark Wall saying another December move looks "more likely than not."Long-dated sovereign yields have hit multi-decade highs simultaneously across the US, Japan, Germany and France — a pattern that puts pressure on European banks holding government paper, and Italian banks led declines earlier in the week for that reason.Silver Outpaced Gold by a Wide MarginGold rose 0.36% to $4,363.96 an ounce. Silver gained 2.32% to $66.468.Silver moving six times as fast as gold is the notable part. It carries both monetary and industrial demand, which typically gives it higher beta in either direction.Gold had posted three consecutive weekly declines through mid-September, falling to $4,296.68 as traders priced the Fed hike, and remains roughly 23% below its January record of $5,600.Its 90-day correlation with the 10-year Treasury yield sits at −0.41 against Bitcoin's −0.17, which is why a rate-driven period separates the two.Oil Held Above $100 in This SnapshotWTI rose 1.08% to $102.35 and Brent 0.4% to $105.02.Those figures predate Friday's session, when WTI fell more than 5% to below $96 and the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.96%, snapping an eight-day rising streak.The underlying supply constraint has not changed. Saudi Arabia closed the East-West pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, leaving production at 6.238 million barrels per day — the lowest since 1990 — with Bab El-Mandeb also under threat.Tanker rates on the Middle East to Far East route topped $1 million per day for the first time, against under $100,000 a year ago.The Crypto PositionBitcoin traded around $78,000 in a third consecutive day of gains, with every major higher and none of the 40 most liquid coins down over the period.The week delivered the Fed's first rate hike since 2023, a dot plot pointing to just one more in 2026, the Clarity Act's failure on a 49-50 Senate cloture vote, and the SEC's innovation exemption for tokenized securities venues two days later.Bitcoin's correlations with traditional assets broke down through that period. CoinMarketCap data show its short-window link to the Dollar Index at +0.08 against −0.54 over 30 days, with gold at 0.28 from 0.69 and the S&P 500 at 0.43 from 0.75.Those relationships appeared to be re-establishing on Thursday, when crypto majors moved with the equity tape rather than ahead of it.
Anais