CNBC Fed Survey: Majority Now Forecast At Least Two Rate Hikes Over Next Year

According to CNBC, a majority of respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey now expect at least two Federal Reserve rate hikes over the next year, while 55% forecast more than one increase. That marks a sharp shift from last month, when 46% expected a hike ahead, and the share has risen to 86%. The survey found that respondents now see inflation as broader than energy prices after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish Jackson Hole speech, oil prices surged and inflation failed to cool. Most of the 29 respondents, including economists, fund managers and strategists, said the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed at least a month longer and that oil prices will stay elevated for more than six months. CPI forecasts rose for both 2026 and 2027, with the average forecast near 3.5% for this year and 2.85% in 2027. The Fed is set to decide on rates Wednesday at the end of its two-day meeting. Despite the shift toward multiple hikes, respondents left the growth outlook little changed, with recession odds at an average 29% over the next 12 months, GDP seen around 2.25% this year and next, and unemployment expected near 4.25%. The S&P 500 is forecast to hold its current level through year-end and rise 8% to 8,274 next year.