STOCKS | ANZ Says Asia Trade Surplus Recycling Into Treasuries Is Fading

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) said the traditional cycle in which Asia's trade surplus flows back to the United States and into U.S. Treasuries is gradually losing effectiveness. According to Sina Finance, senior China strategist Xing Zhaopeng said this means U.S. Treasury yields may need to stay above pre-pandemic levels for a long period to attract enough funds to absorb new supply. Xing said the traditional view is that economies with trade surpluses against the United States eventually invest their dollar income in U.S. Treasuries, and that Asia's excess savings have helped finance the U.S. fiscal deficit. He said that pattern is changing, with more surplus funds no longer flowing mainly into U.S. Treasuries. ANZ said many major Asian economies now use freely floating or managed floating exchange-rate systems, reducing reliance on foreign exchange reserves. It added that much of the dollar income is being retained and allocated by companies, insurers, funds, and other private investors, who demand higher returns and therefore find U.S. Treasuries less attractive. The bank also said more Asian economies are using trade surpluses to expand manufacturing capacity rather than increase financial asset allocations, citing Vietnam and India. It added that more dollar funds generated by trade surpluses are now circulating through Hong Kong and Singapore instead of being directly allocated to U.S. assets.