TDS: Yen Outlook Hinges on Bank of Japan September Guidance

According to Jin10, TDS analysts said the yen's near-term direction will depend on how hawkish the Bank of Japan's forward guidance is next week, as markets have already fully priced in a September rate hike by the central bank. If the guidance does not include an October or December hike, the yen may be sold off and fall back to the 157-160 range, while it could also weaken against higher-yielding emerging-market currencies such as the Indonesian rupiah. Conversely, if Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signals any faster-than-quarterly pace of rate hikes, foreign exchange investors are likely to interpret it as hawkish. TDS expects that if post-meeting market pricing for the Bank of Japan's future rate-hike path shows rates reaching around 2% in the second quarter of 2027, the yen's appeal as a funding currency for global carry trades will gradually diminish.