STOCKS | HSBC Cuts Dollar-Won Forecast as Korea’s Record Current Account Surplus Reshapes FX Outlook

HSBC strategists said the dollar-won uptrend that began in 2021 has ended, driven by South Korea’s record current account surplus this year. According to Sina Finance, HSBC Asia FX research head Joey Chew said in a September 7 report that the bank cut its dollar-won forecasts for end-2026 and mid-2027 to 1,320 and 1,280 from 1,500. Based on January-to-July data, the current account surplus reached an annualized $400 billion, which HSBC called a “game-changing” factor for the exchange rate. The figure exceeds the cumulative $360 billion surplus recorded from 2021 to 2025.