Goldman Raises 2026 USD IG Gross Supply Forecast To $2.3 Trillion On AI-Related Issuance

According to CNBC, Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 forecast for U.S. dollar investment-grade gross credit supply to $2.3 trillion from $2.1 trillion and lifted its net supply forecast to $1.0 trillion from $850 billion, citing continued AI-related issuance. The bank also penciled in $2.4 trillion for 2027 USD IG gross supply and said about 24% of this year’s USD IG gross supply has come from AI-related issuers, helping push overall USD IG credit supply to a year-to-date record. Goldman said the summer slowdown has been elusive and that market participants are expecting a very busy September. It also said euro investment-grade credit may lose some of its technical advantage versus the dollar as hyperscalers look beyond the dollar market for funding, noting that EUR IG credit is the largest alternative public debt market. Goldman said year-to-date returns have been negative for both USD IG and EUR IG, with higher U.S. Treasury and Bund yields weighing on performance, and added that returns would be materially lower if rates stay near current levels. The bank said it expects yields to decline, which should improve returns, though they would still remain below historical averages.