Malayan Banking: Super El Nino Impact on Thailand May Be Mild

According to Jin10, Malayan Banking economists said in a report that this super El Nino may have a milder impact on Thailand's economy and overall inflation than the previous 2015-2016 super El Nino event. They said prolonged hot and dry weather will weigh on output in Thailand's agricultural sector, but fresh produce currently accounts for only 8% of CPI weight, below about 10% in 2015-2016. They also said Thailand's economy is increasingly driven by the electronics and digital industries, reducing its sensitivity to lower agricultural output. Malayan Banking expects Thailand's GDP growth to be 2.4% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, while average overall inflation is forecast at 1.6% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027.