BTIG Sees Ominous Small-Cap Signal As IWM Nears Rare August Pattern

According to CNBC, BTIG said U.S. small-cap stocks have had a strong year, but lingering concerns, including a potential rate hike this month, could drive risk-off sentiment in the weeks ahead. The firm said August will be only the sixth time in the history of the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) that it was up at least 4% during the month and hit an all-time high, while still closing the month up less than 1%. BTIG said the previous five instances, in July 2000, Sept 2008, June 2015, June 2018 and Nov. 2021, were followed by four-month declines averaging 13.57%. The firm also said 10-year yields were at new cycle highs above 4.75%, the odds of a September rate hike had risen to 65%, and September has averaged a 1.51% decline for small-caps over the last 25 years.