Bitcoin traded just under $80,000 in Asian hours Friday after a nearly 2% gain over 24 hours and an overnight run to $81,280, with traders squaring up before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote.Solana ripped more than 4% to nearly $101 and 20% over seven days. Ether added just over 1% to roughly $2,492, XRP nearly 2% to about $1.43, and BNB more than 1% to nearly $714. Tron gained less than 1% at roughly 34 cents and Dogecoin sat flat near 9 cents. HYPE was the only major in the red, shedding under 1% to about $82.Warsh's First Jackson Hole Keynote Is the First Real Rate SignalJackson Hole is the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Wyoming, where the chair's speech has a history of moving markets. Warsh has so far given traders little on where he wants rates, making this the first substantive read before the September 16 FOMC meeting.That reticence is itself part of the setup. MUFG's Derek Halpenny expects Warsh to continue offering limited forward guidance and has warned the long end could face pressure absent credible fiscal consolidation measures. Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer has separately identified reduced Fed transparency as a driver of the term premium surge — less transparency means more uncertainty, and more uncertainty means higher risk premia. A chair who says little may be a bond-market event in its own right.The keynote is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. India time.Spot ETF Inflows Reach $2.8 Billion Across Eight SessionsUS spot products have absorbed $2.8 billion across eight consecutive sessions — the longest inflow streak since April. August flows have cleared $3 billion, making it the strongest month of 2026 with one trading day left.August needs one more session to pass October 2025 as the biggest inflow month since the funds launched. Another day of net buying through the keynote would get it there, and would show the bid holding against a chair who has not ruled out a hike.The comparison matters because October 2025 was the peak of the prior cycle's institutional enthusiasm, with Bitcoin trading just below its $126,000 record. Matching that flow level from $80,000 is a different behavioral signature — buying into a recovery rather than chasing a top.Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement Pulls Brent Below $90Oil did the heavy lifting on the macro side. Brent eased to just under $90 a barrel and is down more than 5% on the week after Iran and Oman agreed terms on administering the Strait of Hormuz.That removes an energy-driven inflation shock from the table precisely as the Fed decides whether it is finished hiking. The Oman framework is the resolution the market had been pricing as a possibility since mid-August, when Tehran first signalled a separate arrangement conditional on the US lifting its naval blockade. Prior de-escalation signals throughout the conflict were bilateral statements that reversed within days; a third-party administration agreement is structurally different.The context makes the move consequential. Hormuz shipping had fallen to near zero — five vessels on one Saturday and none the following Sunday, against 31 the prior weekend — through a strait that normally carries a fifth of the world's oil. Brent had reached $94 after the 60-day ceasefire lapsed without a deal.The 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.67%, seven basis points lower on the week. The two-year sat at 4.23%, the dollar index hovered just above 99 and gold slipped to $4,587 an ounce.Nvidia's Guidance Adds $442 Billion in Market ValueNvidia's guidance — $96.2 billion in quarterly revenue and a third-quarter forecast above $105 billion — drove a 9% surge that added $442 billion in market value and lifted the Nasdaq 1.3%.The Wall Street Journal reported Nvidia had paused some deals in a new financing initiative that offered credit support to AI cloud providers in exchange for a share of revenue, citing people familiar with the matter. That detail cuts against the demand narrative in a specific way: vendor financing expands the addressable market by enabling purchases that would not otherwise clear, and pausing it suggests either caution about counterparty quality or a decision that the support is no longer needed.For the neocloud cohort — miners that pivoted to AI compute — that financing structure is directly relevant. IREN holds $2.8 billion in contracts across Microsoft, Nvidia, Perplexity and Figure AI.Ethena Leads the Top 100 on a Buyback Governance VoteEthena's ENA led the top 100, up 6% on the day and 45% on the week after a governance vote to route protocol revenue into buybacks and restructure venture unlocks.The weekly picture is broader than the daily one: Ether and XRP are both up close to 11%, Dogecoin 16% and HYPE 12%.The Divergence Between Hike Pricing and Bitcoin's GainFutures price a 35% chance of a rate increase in September and fully price a move by December — a hawkish setup that has not stopped Bitcoin from adding 9% in a week.That divergence is the position risk into the keynote. Bitcoin has rallied through rising hike expectations, which means a hawkish Warsh does not deliver new information so much as confirm what is already priced — but it would remove the ambiguity that has let the rally run.LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger sees limited downside from here. "Setbacks should now be limited, with the May high just below $83,000," he said.The Bitfinex analyst team framed the current price action structurally. "We now have a squeeze that has run into a defined population of sellers," the team wrote this week, pointing to spot demand absorbing overhead supply between $77,100 and $80,000.That description matches the Glassnode data. Nearly 8% of Bitcoin's supply was acquired between $80,000 and $82,000, the largest concentration at any comparable range, with roughly 5% at $80,000 alone. The average cost basis of US spot ETF deposits sits in the same band, and the 50-week moving average is at $81,081 — where Bitcoin was rejected earlier in the week at an $81,265 high.Absorbing that supply requires sustained spot demand rather than short covering, which is why the ETF streak matters more here than any single technical level.
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