Hong Kong Property Market Rebounds as Mainland Buyers Drive 2026 Gains

Hong Kong’s property market rebounded in the first half of 2026, with 49,955 building-sale registrations totaling HK$410.289 billion, the highest transaction count for a first half since 2021 and the highest value in four and a half years, according to Jiemian News. Mainland buyers were a key force: Hong Kong-based China Resources? Actually source says Centaline Property: 9,776 registrations and HK$107.1 billion in transactions, both record highs for the period, with average spending of HK$10.97 million per buyer. Centaline said mainland buyers accounted for 4,704 first-home transactions worth HK$61.45 billion, up 25% and 22% year on year, and 5,072 second-hand home deals worth HK$45.65 billion. Jiemian News reported that buyers were concentrated in core locations such as Kai Tak, Mid-Levels West and Wan Chai, with Kai Tak leading both in volume and value and Ho Man Tin ranking fifth by volume but second by value. First Great? Sources: Savills South China managing director Wu Rui said the market was supported by lower prices after the 2021 peak, higher rents, demand from so-called new Hong Kong residents, and Hong Kong’s role in global asset allocation. He said more than 300,000 mainland professionals have been attracted to Hong Kong through talent schemes, and estimated that about 70% of luxury-home deals by mainland buyers reflected some level of end-use demand. The luxury segment led the rebound. Centaline’s research showed that homes priced above HK$20 million saw 2,372 combined first- and second-hand transactions in the first half, worth HK$111.318 billion, the highest half-year value since the second half of 1995. In the Peak and South area, 121 luxury-home deals totaled HK$15.138 billion, up 165.2% from a year earlier. Centaline senior executive director Ho Siu-tong said mainland buyers made up about 70% of those deals, local buyers about 20%, and European capital about 10%. Wu said he expects Hong Kong luxury housing to continue recovering in the second half of 2026, though price gains should slow. Centaline deputy chairman and residential division president Chan Wing-kit estimated near 10,000 potential new-home units in the second half and about 20,000 new-home transactions for the full year. Citigroup raised its forecast for Hong Kong home prices in 2026 to 12% from 8%, Morgan Stanley lifted its view to 12% from 10%, Goldman Sachs forecast 12%, and JPMorgan projected 10% to 15%.