Bitcoin Profitability Improves, But Analysts See Risk of Another Pullback

Bitcoin market profitability is improving, but on-chain data still do not confirm the start of a new bull market, and the risk of another decline remains. According to ChainCatcher, CryptoQuant data show Bitcoin's Supply in Profit has risen to 57.5%, up from a June 30, 2026 low of 46.2% and close to 60%. However, analysts said the recovery in profitable supply still needs sustained confirmation. Historical cycles suggest a bear market is only considered over when two conditions are met: the 30-day simple moving average of Long-Term Holder SOPR stays above 1 for several weeks, and Bitcoin's Supply in Profit remains steadily above 64%. Analysts noted that this cycle has already seen one false breakout. From April 28 to June 1, the LTH-SOPR average stayed above 1 for 35 straight days, while Supply in Profit briefly reached 67%, before the market pulled back again. At present, the 30-day SMA for long-term holders has remained below 1 for more than 50 days, which is still viewed as an important risk signal for the strength of the recovery.