Suspicious Prediction Market Trades Reach $200 Million in First Half of 2026

Suspicious trading tied to prediction markets has increased as platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have grown in popularity and scale. According to Odaily, analysis of about 34,000 flagged suspicious trades showed that the total value of such trades was about $200 million from January to June 2026, with bets related to geopolitics and war driving most of the activity. Iran-related bets peaked in late February, the analysis found. It also showed that 71% of the flagged trades were funded through U.S.-regulated crypto exchanges, while profits were highly concentrated among a small group of wallets, with the top 1% of profitable wallets taking more than half of the gains. The analysis said 57% of the wallets were created within 24 hours before trading.