CITIC Securities: Beijing-Shanghai Home Sales Active but Not a Recovery

CITIC Securities reported that second-hand home transactions in Beijing and Shanghai remained active through June 2026, bucking the typical seasonal slowdown, according to 36Kr. However, the brokerage said the current uptick is driven by low-price刚性 demand and 'extreme value-for-money' listings, and does not signal a fundamental property market recovery or a stabilization of tier-one city home prices. CITIC noted that the upgrade-and-replacement chain has not yet revived, and forecasts that tier-one city home prices are more likely to stabilize gradually in the second half of 2027. In the near term, the firm said markets have largely ignored property-sector changes, but a sustained price stabilization that revives the replacement chain could eventually constrain the interest-rate floor.