Oil Rises After Trump Reimposes Iran Blockade, Proposes Strait Toll

According to Axios, the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is unraveling, with President Trump reimposing a blockade of Iran in the Strait of Hormuz and proposing a 20% toll on cargo shipped through it. The threat sent benchmark Brent crude oil up more than 9% to $86.57 a barrel, well above the sub-$70 level seen after the ceasefire but below conflict peaks. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs analysts estimated that pipeline and export-infrastructure projects under construction or planned could insulate more than 45% of pre-war Persian Gulf exports from future Hormuz disruptions by end of 2025, rising to over 60% by end of 2028. Two projects are already under construction: the West-East pipeline in the UAE and the Basra-Haditha Pipeline in Iraq, and a Dubai-based port operator is in talks to develop a new UAE port to reduce dependence on the strait. Despite the buildout, 7 million to 9 million barrels per day of crude and refined products remain exposed, and Qatar's LNG exports have no realistic alternative.