Standard Chartered Maintains $100,000 Bitcoin Forecast for End-2026 Amid Strategy Shift

Standard Chartered said it is maintaining its forecast that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of 2026, arguing that a recent market decline tied to developments around Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) reflects a misunderstood strategic shift rather than a deterioration in the company’s balance sheet. According to ChainCatcher, the bank’s global head of digital asset research, Geoffrey Kendrick, wrote in a report that Strategy’s recent actions are disrupting short-term expectations for Bitcoin. Kendrick said the market had previously embraced a narrative that Strategy would “never sell Bitcoin,” but the company now appears to be moving toward a more complex capital-operations model. He added that how clearly Strategy communicates this change could determine when market pressure eases. Strategy currently holds 843,775 Bitcoin, representing more than 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply of 21 million. Kendrick noted that from 2020 to mid-2025, Strategy’s mNAV (enterprise value divided by the value of its Bitcoin holdings) stayed above 1, enabling it to raise equity financing to buy Bitcoin and support shareholder value. He said the “never sell Bitcoin” commitment was central to market acceptance of that model, but with mNAV now near 1, the leverage effect of the approach is weakening. Kendrick said Strategy is shifting from a “Bitcoin accumulation vehicle” to a “Bitcoin credit support vehicle,” using its Bitcoin holdings as credit backing for its perpetual preferred stock, STRC. STRC is about $10 billion in size, which Standard Chartered described as Strategy’s largest financial instrument. It carries a 12% annualized dividend, paid in cash every half-month, and includes a rate-adjustment mechanism intended to keep its price near a $100 par value. Standard Chartered said STRC is trading around $90, while Strategy’s U.S. dollar reserves for dividend payments are about $2.55 billion, covering roughly 17.4 months of dividends. Kendrick said allowing Bitcoin sales does not necessarily mean Strategy will continue selling, and argued that if markets believe the new capital structure can stabilize STRC’s price, the company may not need to sell Bitcoin.