Russia Oil Output Forecast Cut as Ukraine Attacks Energy Infrastructure, IEA Says

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said it has lowered its forecast for Russia’s oil output due to Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. According to Jin10, the IEA said Ukraine has intensified drone strikes in recent months on energy facilities, including refineries, in an effort to curb Russia’s actions. In its monthly outlook, the IEA said continued attacks on refineries, oil storage sites, and transport infrastructure supported a weaker production outlook. It said it therefore reduced its Russia supply forecasts for this year and next year by 85,000 barrels per day and 150,000 barrels per day, respectively, with an average of 8.8 million barrels per day over the forecast period. The IEA said Russia’s oil output is expected to reach 8.9 million barrels per day this year and 8.8 million barrels per day in 2027, down from 9.2 million barrels per day in 2025. The agency also said Russia’s crude oil production in June rose by 120,000 barrels per day from May to 8.86 million barrels per day, which it said was 900,000 barrels per day below the quota set by the OPEC+ alliance.