Strive’s Joe Burnett Says Bitcoin’s Breakeven ARR Is Often Misunderstood

Strive Bitcoin Strategy Vice President Joe Burnett said Bitcoin’s breakeven annualized rate of return is frequently misunderstood and that correctly interpreting the concept is important for understanding market behavior. According to ChainCatcher, Burnett outlined three broad approaches global capital can take when allocating to Bitcoin. First, he described a bullish approach in which investors expect Bitcoin to appreciate significantly and use long-term borrowed funds—at a cost below 20%—to increase exposure. Second, he described a neutral approach he labeled “digital credit,” arguing Bitcoin would only need to rise 3.3% per year for capital appreciation to permanently cover dividends; in this framework, buyers mainly need to believe Bitcoin will persist and outperform inflation, which he said may already be a global consensus. Third, he described a bearish approach that expresses negative views through shorting Bitcoin or using leveraged Bitcoin exposure. Burnett said these three approaches correspond to three categories of Bitcoin-linked instruments, allowing major global allocators to choose a method aligned with their worldview. He added that this framework helps explain how capital on the scale of tens of trillions of dollars could gradually flow into the Bitcoin market.