Kalshi traders price roughly 50-50 odds Nasdaq-100 ends 2026 above 30,000

According to CNBC, prediction market platform Kalshi showed traders assigning about 50-50 odds that the Nasdaq-100 will close 2026 above 30,000, after the index rose about 18% in 2026 and first crossed 30,000 in late May; as of midday trading Tuesday it was about 1% below that level. CNBC said another Kalshi contract implied 40% odds the Nasdaq-100’s 2026 high ends up above 32,000, versus an intraday high so far this year of 30,762 reached on June 3, while traders put about a 27% chance on the index climbing above 33,000 by year-end. CNBC also reported that UBS said it expects the broader market rally to continue in the second half of 2026, with the possibility that technology is no longer the leader, and noted the Nasdaq-100 added SpaceX as its newest member on Tuesday.