AI TRENDS | Market Focus Shifts to When SpaceX and Tesla Might Merge

Market discussion has shifted from whether SpaceX and Tesla will merge to when a merger could happen, with some long-term investors saying a deal is already a foregone conclusion. According to Jin10, Elon Musk said a decade ago that SpaceX and Tesla had a weak connection and lacked sufficient rationale to merge. The report said Musk has not publicly confirmed any merger plan, but he has frequently referred to the “integration” of his businesses. Jin10 reported that SpaceX has hinted in filings that it may issue a large number of shares, fueling speculation about potential transactions. The report said both companies have moved toward AI in recent years. Tesla has been betting on autonomous driving and humanoid robots. SpaceX has acquired xAI and plans to deploy space-based data centers, and AI is expected to become SpaceX’s largest revenue source starting this year. Jin10 said business ties between the two companies have strengthened, with SpaceX disclosing purchases from Tesla that include batteries and the Cybertruck. It added that Tesla indirectly holds an equity stake in SpaceX due to the xAI acquisition. The report also said that although Musk rejected the merger logic a decade ago, he acknowledged in 2025 that SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI have synergies in solar-powered AI satellite-related areas, which he views as a key technology for obtaining large amounts of solar energy.